Replacing Hilton Surpass

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Introduction

I like the American Express Hilton HHonors Surpass card, which gives 6 HHonors points per dollar spent at gas stations and grocery stores, for the simple reason that with an earning rate that high, it's easy to get more value per dollar spent than you would using a 2% or 2.105% cash back credit card instead, a point I illustrated early this year with this chart:

This chart helpfully illustrates that whether or not it makes sense to manufacture spend on a mile- or point-earning credit card, instead of a cashback-earning credit card, depends entirely on what your next best alternative is. The worse your cashback alternative, the better a value loyalty programs potentially provide.

Hilton HHonors Surpass cannibalizes two of the most lucrative bonus categories

If you could earn an uncapped 6 HHonors points per dollar on spend everywhere, the above chart would suffice, since 2.105% and 2% are the currently-available options for "everywhere" manufactured spend.

Unfortunately, Surpass cards earn 6 points per dollar only at gas stations and grocery stores (and restaurants), and those are categories where it's easy to earn more than 2.105% cash back.

Replacing Surpass at grocery stores

If you have an "old" Blue Cash American Express card, you'll always do better earning 5% cash back at grocery stores and gas stations than you will manufacturing HHonors points; you'd have to value HHonors points consistently at more than 0.8 cents each to justify earning them instead. The same is true if you're earning 5% cash back during a Wells Fargo or TD Bank promotional period.

Once you've reached your limits with those cards, you can still earn 3% cash back at grocery stores with a card like the Consumers Credit Union Visa Signature Cash Rebate card (on up to $200,000 in annual spend).

Replacing Surpass at gas stations

Besides the "old" Blue Cash card, at gas stations you can earn 5% cash back with a card like the Fort Knox Federal Credit Union Visa Platinum card. Beyond that, there are also 3% cash back options like the Chase AARP credit card (uncapped) and the Bank of America Cash Rewards for Business MasterCard (on up to $250,000 in purchases).

Replacing Surpass everywhere

While it's only worth manufacturing spend on the Surpass card at gas stations and grocery stores, it's also possible to earn more than 2.105% cash back everywhere, including gas stations and grocery stores. Namely, the BankAmericard Travel Rewards credit card gives 1.5% cash back (when redeemed against travel purchases), which rises to 2.625% cash back when you have over $100,000 on deposit with Bank of America and Merrill Lynch through their Preferred Rewards program.

If your principle limitation is not purchase bandwidth, but rather liquidation bandwidth, you should look long and hard at whether manufacturing cheap spend at 2.625% is better than manufacturing potentially-expensive grocery store spend at 6 HHonors points per dollar.

Conclusion: running the numbers

As longtime readers know, the principle way I decide whether manufacturing spend on a co-branded credit card, instead of earning cash back, is worthwhile is through imputed redemption values like those I showed in the introduction. Here are those values for our newly-established points of comparison:

As you can see, for 50,000-to-70,000-point redemptions (which make up the bulk of my stays), with a 3%-cashback alternative Hilton properties go from $176-$246 (compared to using a post-devaluation 2.105% cashback Arrival+ card) to $250-$350.

Those values aren't outrageous, but would certainly require you to be much more diligent about pursuing the highest-value redemptions in order to make it worth manufacturing HHonors points instead of bonused cash back.

What Frequent Miler gets wrong about earning and burning

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On Tuesday, Greg over at Frequent Miler wrote a defense of hoarding miles and points. He's wrong, but to understand why he's wrong, you have to understand his argument.

Frequent Miler thinks the problem with hoarding is devaluations

In setting up his argument, Greg says the reason people recommend burning miles and points aggressively is out of fear of devaluations:

"There’s no question that points and miles frequently devalue in a number of ways: Loyalty programs change their award charts to make awards more expensive..Loyalty programs add new categories...Loyalty programs move hotels to different categories...Loyalty programs go revenue based...Loyalty programs change the rules..."

In this telling, innocent readers are redeeming their points too aggressively, missing out on occasional flash sales and keeping their balances too low to ever take advantage of the remaining award chart sweet spots.

If devaluations were the problem with hoarding, Greg would be right

Currently, up and down Hyatt's award chart Hyatt Gold Passport points are consistently worth well over a cent each. The Park Hyatt Paris-Vendôme costs 30,000 Gold Passport points or $993 next summer (3.3 cents per point) while the Hyatt Place Greenville/Haywood (South Carolina) costs 5,000 Gold Passport points or $171 on the same date (3.4 cents per point).

Hyatt could literally double the points cost of both properties and we'd still be better off transferring Ultimate Rewards points over to Hyatt than redeeming the same points for cash — not that I'm trying to give Hyatt any ideas!

If you manufacture your points cheaply enough, then it will take many years of devaluations before you'd need to worry about a significant effect on your earning calculus.

Greg's aphorisms have nothing to do with hoarding

Greg's proposed alternative to earning and burning points aggressively is "opportunistic hoarding:" signing up for the most lucrative credit card offers, manufacturing spend in the most lucrative bonus categories, and enjoying the luxury of flexibility when he ultimately begins planning a trip.

Sounds pretty good, right?

It sounds good because Greg chose to defend what is very close to a truism: "earn points cheaply and redeem them dearly!"

The problem with hoarding is that it's expensive

If Greg wants to actually defend hoarding, he needs to defend something more controversial. If hoarding means anything, it means paying with cash instead of points, despite having enough points in your account to pay for your trips.

A corollary of this might be making a cash-and-points redemption instead of a points-only redemption in order to "stretch" your points further, for example when given the option to buy Avios for 1.3 cents each while making economy award reservations.

Framed this way, the problem with hoarding is obvious: it's expensive!

In a world of unlimited cash, of course, this wouldn't be a problem. But in a world of unlimited cash, I hope you would have better things to do with your time than obsessing over miles and points!

Ostensibly, the reason we play this game, whether you're just starting out applying for a few credit cards per year or you're manufacturing hundreds of thousands of points per month, is to save money on travel. You might be trying to save money on trips you were already planning to take, or be planning trips you could never have imagined being able to afford in your previous life. But the object of the game is the same: end up with more money in your bank account than you would if you had to pay your travel providers in cash.

When you hoard miles and points, that fundamental logic break down: you start treating your rewards currencies as a retirement account and spending money that you could actually be saving for retirement!

Of course it's possible to redeem too aggressively

You can imagine, of course, someone so intent on redeeming their miles and points that they end up costing themselves more money in the long term. A 50,000-mile "Standard" award on United today is two 25,000-mile awards tomorrow, if you're able to plan ahead and hunt for award space, while if your account is empty and you have to pay cash for the two tickets tomorrow, you've cost yourself real money.

Don't do that.

If anything, the conventional wisdom is to save up miles and points for the "perfect" redemption

Ultimately, Greg's argument has a flaw at its inception: he thinks people tend to err on the side of redeeming miles and points, and I think the opposite is true.

When Thought Leaders In Travel are hounding their readers never to miss a limited time opportunity:

And rich weirdos are urging readers to buy United miles at outrageous out-of-pocket cost:

It makes no sense to me to assert that the number one problem facing the community is rewards currency balances being kept dangerously low by our eagerness to redeem points. Surely, the opposite is more likely.

Conclusion

Once you've earned miles and points, it's too late to start assigning some theoretical value to them; their value is only realized when you redeem them, and it's the value of those actual redemptions that should guide you when deciding whether to continue earning more of a given rewards currency.

Keep an emergency stockpile if you must, but don't second guess yourself when redeeming any and all excess points you earn — that's literally what they're there for!

Thinking about cash-and-points redemptions (is hard)

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There's a curious problem that everyone encounters eventually as they become increasingly involved in travel hacking: how do you think about award redemptions that combine both cash and points? For example, this hypothetical reservation in New York City offers three options:

You can pay $143 in cash, $125 in cash and 24,000 HHonors points (getting 0.075 cents per redeemed HHonors point), or 60,000 HHonors points (redeeming your HHonors points for 0.24 cents each).

Another way of putting the same facts is that you can pay 60,000 HHonors points, or 24,000 HHonors points and $125 in cash (buying 36,000 HHonors points for 0.35 cents each), or $143 (buying 60,000 HHonors points for 0.24 cents each).

In other words, a cash and points redemption can be thought of as buying HHonors points with the savings compared to a cash rate, or redeeming HHonors points to save money off the cash rate.

As I say, that's a curiosity built into the concept of points and cash redemptions, and I'm not going to resolve it one way or another for you today (or ever). I'm interested in something else.

British Airways sells Avios very cheaply when making economy award redemptions

I have a trip planned to Europe next summer, booked using the last of my Club Carlson points before the great devaluation of 2015. Since my partner has friends and relatives in Germany, we're going to end up there, giving me the opportunity to book our return flights by redeeming Avios on Air Berlin flights to New York City. Here are the pricing options (for two passengers):

I'll dispense with the comparison to a cash rate (around $1,622 for two passengers) and focus on the top and bottom redemption options. It's possible to redeem 40,000 Avios and pay $178.18 in taxes and fees, or 14,000 Avios (26,000 fewer) and $498.18 ($320 more). If I already had 40,000 Avios in my account, this would be a no-brainer: I'd redeem the miles I earned.

But as you can see, I have between 20,000 and 26,000 Avios in my account currently (a hair over 24,000, in fact). That means I can transfer 16,000 Ultimate Rewards points to British Airways in order to save $240 (getting 1.5 cents per transferred Ultimate Rewards point), or I can redeem 6,000 fewer Avios and pay $80 more in cash (buying Avios for 1.3 cents per point).

So what's the problem?

The problem is that those are both outstanding opportunities!

Buying Avios for 1.3 cents each is a great discount if I have any plans to redeem the saved Avios for short-haul American Airlines flights, which can offer phenomenal value.

Redeeming Ultimate Rewards points for 1.5 cents each is also a great opportunity, since Ultimate Rewards points are worth just 1 cent each when redeemed for cash and just 1.25 cents each when redeemed for paid airfare.

On the other hand, Ultimate Rewards points are potentially worth much more when transferred to Hyatt and redeemed for expensive stays.

My solution is definitely not your solution

If it sounds like I've been wrestling with this problem for a while, it's because I have. But ultimately, I fall on the side of redeeming my Ultimate Rewards points for 1.5 cents each. That's because I'm points-rich and cash-poor: if I "saved" my points by redeeming 20,000 or 14,000 of them against the Air Berlin itinerary, instead of transferring in 16,000 Ultimate Rewards points, I would then redeem the corresponding Ultimate Rewards points for cash at just one cent each.

In the business, that's what we call "false economy."

On the other hand, if you live in a city that's served by American Airlines — and they actually offer SAAver seat availability — you might be used to redeeming your Avios for astronomical sums and leap at the opportunity to buy them for just 1.3 cents each.

Similarly, if you value your Ultimate Rewards points highly because you're able to aggressively redeem them for super-high-value redemptions, the idea of transferring them to Avios in order to redeem them at 1.5 cents each should sound preposterous.

Conclusion

I'm one of the most vigorous enemies of earning points speculatively. But once you've earned them, speculatively or otherwise, it's even worse to speculatively forego redeeming them! They're sitting in your accounts, begging to save you money.

I'm going to do them a favor and let them.

Quick hit: check your cardmember year Ink bonus spend

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On Monday I mentioned two recent developments that should, at least for now, make earning Ultimate Rewards points at office supply stores easier and cheaper than ever using Chase's Ink line of small business credit cards. So easy, in fact, that you may find yourself maxing out your $50,000 Ink+ and $25,000 Ink Cash cardmember year caps on bonused spend earlier in your cardmember year than you're used to.

Fortunately, there's an easy way to check how much you've already spent in your Chase Ink bonus categories.

First, log into your Chase online banking account navigate to the Ultimate Rewards account linked to your Chase Ink card:

Second, click on "More ways to earn" on the righthand side of the Ultimate Rewards homepage:

Then, scroll down until you see your 5x and 2x earning categories. Next to each, you'll see the total number of bonus points you've earned as of your last credit credit card statement:

As you can see, as of my last statement I had spent approximately $1,191 of my $50,000 office supply store bonus earning cap and $4,554 of my $50,000 gas station bonus earning cap.

Just remember, this is exclusive of the 1 Ultimate Rewards point earned per dollar spent everywhere, so you need to divide your office supply store bonus earning by 4, not 5, and you don't need to divide your gas station earning by anything: the number you see is the amount of your gas station spend during your current cardmember year as of your last statement.

Give away travel

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There have been two big, fun developments in the world of travel hacking in the past two weeks: Staples began selling $300 Visa gift cards online, and Office Max began selling variable-load Visa gift cards in-store. Those developments have been more than adequately covered elsewhere (see, e.g., $300 Visa gift cards, Office Max variable-load cards).

The fun part, of course, comes not from earning your miles and points, but from redeeming them. On the one hand, both of these new developments are profitable on a cash-back basis. A brand new Chase Ink+ card would allow you to annually manufacture $2,500 in cash back at a cost of $589.05 (98 variable-load cards, assuming Office Max quickly fixes the current pricing error and raises the cost of each card from $3.95 to the correct $5.95). If you master high-value Ultimate Rewards redemptions, you can get astronomical value at minimal cost: a $12,001 Lufthansa first class flight for $259.18 in fees, or something like a 97.8% discount.

So it's now easier and faster than ever to accumulate huge numbers of valuable Ultimate Rewards points. But Matt at Saverocity's post yesterday got me thinking about the fact that earning points more easily makes them no easier to redeem. Naturally you can redeem your cheap Ultimate Rewards points for cash, but many travel hackers find that unsatisfying when they know how to both earn and redeem points for much more valuable redemptions.

While Matt introduces the idea of "outsourcing" to describe finding additional time to travel by automating and having others perform routine tasks, there's another way outsourcing can benefit you: outsource your travel, by giving it away.

Why give away travel?

We give away travel all the time without thinking anything of it. If you have a partner, spouse, or children, you might be booking travel for 2 or 5 or 10 people, all of which is paid for with your own travel hacking expertise. We may not think of that as giving away travel because it's basically selfish: we want our loved ones with us while we travel!

At the other extreme of altruism are the variety of programs that airlines participate in, which allow you to donate, typically without receiving any tax advantage, miles and points you already have in your frequent flyer accounts (United, American, Delta). Those programs may be noble, and I don't doubt that the charities involved receive some cash or travel benefit when they receive a mileage donation, they also don't allow you to exercise your specialized knowledge as a travel hacker: knowing which redemptions provide the best value for your redeemed mile.

Somewhere in the middle is giving away travel to people you know, but just for the sake of letting them travel. If your niece is graduating from high school, you can outdo all the other uncles by sending her on an international romp for trivial out-of-pocket cost.

Trips to give away

When you've got a huge store of cheap Ultimate Rewards points, there are a few combinations that produce terrific vacations for trivial amounts of money. You may not want to take them yourself, but your relatives, young, old, or in between, might be thrilled to.

British Airways/Iberia Avios

The big three transatlantic options with minimal fees and fuel surcharges are Boston-Dublin on Aer Lingus (25,000 Avios round trip), Berlin-New York JFK on Air Berlin (40,000 Avios roundtrip), and Madrid-JFK/Chicago O'Hare/BOS/ (34,000 Avios roundtrip).

In case it needs to be said, Madrid, Dublin, and Berlin are all pretty amazing places to visit for the first time!

Since American Airlines is an Avios partner airline and has a terrific route network in Latin America, you'll also find great deals there when dispatching your relatives from Miami. Nassau in the Bahamas, Cancun in Mexico, Montego Bay and Kingston in Jamaica, and Providenciales in Turk and Caicos are all 9,000 Avios roundtrips from Miami.

From the West Coast, you'll probably want to send your loved ones to Hawaii for 25,000 Avios roundtrip from Seattle, Portland, the Bay Area, or Los Angeles and San Diego.

Hyatt

So now we've isolated some of the destinations our loved ones might like to visit. How can we put them up? Of the Ultimate Rewards hotel transfer partners, Hyatt Gold Passport is going to be our best bet, with IHG Rewards Club as a backup option (more on that in a moment). Let's narrow down our destinations by access to low-level Hyatt properties.

  • Dublin. No Hyatt properties.
  • Berlin. Grand Hyatt Berlin, 15,000 HGP points per night.
  • Madrid. No Hyatt properties.
  • Nassau. Grand Hyatt at Baha Mar (opening indefinitely delayed).
  • Jamaica. Hyatt Ziva Rose Hall and Hyatt Zilara Rose Hall, 25,000 HGP points per night.
  • Cancun. Hyatt Zilara Cancun, 25,000 HGP points per night. Hyatt Playa del Carmen, 20,000 HGP points per night.
  • Providenciales. No Hyatt properties.
  • Hawaii. Andaz Maui at Wailea Resort, 25,000 HGP points per night. Hyatt Regency Waikiki Beach Resort and Spa, 20,000 HGP points per night. Hyatt Regency Maui Resort and Spa, 20,000 HGP points per night. Hyatt Place Waikiki Beach, 12,000 HGP points per night.

IHG Rewards

IHG Rewards requires a special mention because of their random PointsBreaks list of properties that cost just 5,000 points per night. While IHG is a transfer partner of Chase Ultimate Rewards, it's essential to remember that you never have to transfer all the points required to book a PointsBreaks property! That's because you only have to have 5,000 IHG Rewards points in your account to be able to purchase an unlimited number of additional points at 0.7 cents each to top up an award redemption.

If, like me, you're always eyeing the PointsBreaks list for countries you might like to visit and stay on the cheap for days or weeks, remember: you don't have to go yourself! There might be somebody in your life who'd like to visit the Holiday Inn Mundanjiang even more than you!

Conclusion

Like a lot of people who started traveling early and often, I cut my teeth on discounted airlines and youth hostels. One of the most remarkable things about travel hacking is that it gives us and our loved ones the opportunity to see the world in more comfort and at far lower cost than was possible just 5 or 10 years ago.

So if you're having trouble redeeming points fast enough to drain down your rewards balances, don't forget that you can give travel away!

Pre-devaluation Arrival+ housekeeping

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We're now just over a month away from the November 17, 2015, Barclaycard Arrival+ devaluation. The devaluation has two key components:

  • statement credits against travel purchases will only be available for purchases of $100 or more, up from $25;
  • only 5% of Arrival+ miles redeemed against travel purchases will be redeposited in your account after each redemption, down from 10%.

Personally, I will still find the card worth keeping as long as Barclaycard continues to waive my annual fees. But the changes are big and real, and worth preparing for.

What's your date?

There are two potential dates your card will undergo the devaluation:

  • November 17, 2015, if your account was opened before September 30, 2014, or
  • August, 2016, if your account was opened after September 30, 2014.

If you're subject to the November 17, 2015, devaluation date you should have received an e-mail from "email@offers.BarclaycardUS.com" on or around October 1, 2015, with the details of the devaluation. If you opened your account after September 30, 2014, you should have received a different e-mail or physical letter with the August, 2016, devaluation date.

Since I opened my account in April, 2014, I'm subject to the November 17, 2015, devaluation date.

Make your sub-$100 travel purchases now

If you purchase Uber credit in redeemable "chunks," you'll want to buy as many $25 chunks as you plan you redeem before November 17. You'll still be able to buy Uber credit after that date, but it'll be more expensive: you'll only get a free redemption every 20 times you redeem, instead of every 10 times, and you'll have to buy $100 in Uber credit at a time to be eligible for redemptions.

If you have the ability to make free changes to award flights (due to status or because you're flying on Alaska Airlines), and are planning an award redemption with taxes and fees between $25 and $100, you might also want to make those redemptions before the devaluation.

Make your tourist attraction purchases now

There's a popular nearby tourist attraction which sells annual memberships for around $70. This is a double whammy for me, since it's both less than $100 and a tourist attraction, and according to Barclaycard:

"Purchases classified as Tourist Attractions (including expositions, botanical gardens, craft shows, museums and wineries) will no longer count toward qualifying travel statement credit redemptions."

That being the case, I'll purchase an annual membership before November 17 rolls around.

If you live in a city with expensive museums, or in an area with wineries that are currently coded as eligible transactions, consider locking in the ability to redeem your miles by buying a membership sooner, rather than later.

Will eligible purchases remain eligible for redemption after the devaluation?

I have a request in to Barclaycard's Twitter team asking whether $25-to-$99 purchases made before November 17 will remain eligible for redemption after November 17. My gut says they probably will, but to be on the safe side I'll be redeeming as many of my Arrival+ miles before the big day rolls around, if for no other reason than to secure the extra 5% redemption rebate while I can.

Refundable reservations should remain available

Before the comments section fills up with snark, let me say yes, I know you can redeem Arrival+ miles against refunded travel purchases. I've written about it before. And if you typically redeem your Arrival+ miles by making refundable airline reservations or prepaid hotel reservations, and then canceling them, you can probably ignore all the foregoing (although you should still make sure to redeem as many Arrival+ miles as possible before the devaluation).

Conclusion

On the other hand, if that technique makes you uncomfortable (or just sounds like a lot of work), then you should consider the tips above to get the most value out of your Arrival+ card before November 17, 2015.

Marriott Cash + Points redemptions could be great for you

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Yesterday I saw on Travel Codex Scott Mackenzie sharing some details of Marriott's new Cash + Points redemptions, which will apparently become available early next year.

First, two important caveats. The new Marriott Cash + Points redemptions will not change or slow the relentless upward drift in Marriott property categories. Three or four years ago, the Courtyard Portland City Center was a Category 5 hotel. Today it's Category 7. Additionally, Marriott points are extremely expensive, costing one cent per point when Chase Ultimate Rewards points are transferred in, or 2-plus cents per point if you choose to manufacture spend on a Chase Marriott co-branded credit card instead of a cashback-earning credit card.

But sometimes you just can't help but earn Marriott Rewards points. And Cash + Points redemptions are going to make it much cheaper to drain those balances back down to zero, where they belong.

Always redeem for Cash + Points, where available (with 4 exceptions)

As Marriott Rewards makes clear, "members will be able to redeem their points for the NEW Cash + Points at participating Marriott brand hotels and The Ritz-Carlton hotels when available. Participation will vary by hotel."

In other words, just because a paid night is available, and just because an award night is available, a Cash + Points night won't necessarily be available. But when a Cash + Points night is available, it will usually be better than a straight points redemption.

Here's Scott's chart showing the new Cash + Points redemptions, and the implicit price paid per "saved" Marriott Rewards point:

Only at Marriott Rewards Category 1, Category 2, Category 9, and Ritz Carlton Tier 5 properties do the "missing" points on a redemption cost more than 1 cent each. In other words, if you're considering transferring points in from Ultimate Rewards, you'll be better off at all other properties simply redeeming your Ultimate Rewards points for cash and buying the missing Marriott Rewards points!

Don't compare Marriott Cash + Points rates to cash; compare them to the competition

All I've said so far is that except in a few situations, if it makes sense to make a Marriott Rewards point redemption, it will make even more sense to make a Cash + Points redemption.

But don't let that lure you into thinking that it makes sense to make a Marriott Rewards point redemption!

For example, there are two Category 7 Marriott Rewards properties in Manhattan: the Fairfield Inn & Suites New York Manhattan/Downtown East and Residence Inn New York Manhattan/World Trade Center Area. Those properties cost 35,000 Marriott Rewards points or, under the new 2016 Cash + Points regime, 21,000 Marriott Rewards points and $90 in cash.

If you're paying for your hotel stays exclusively with Chase Ultimate Rewards points, however, there are seven Hyatt Gold Passport properties that cost less than that, and one (the Park Hyatt New York) that ties at exactly 30,000 Hyatt Gold Passport points!

Conclusion

After the new Cash + Points redemption rates go into effect, Marriott Rewards points will still be extremely expensive to acquire and Marriott Rewards properties will still require far more points than their competitors.

But if you are stuck earning Marriott Rewards points through corporate contracts, the imperative of location, or the simple compulsion to sign up for every 80,000-point credit card offer that comes along, you'll want to keep an eye open for Cash + Points availability starting early next year.

Having a routine is fantastic. Also dangerous

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Back in September, Matt at Saverocity wrote this post about the potential problems of a travel hacker getting so "locked in" to one or two loyalty programs that they're unable to take advantage of other, potentially more lucrative programs sitting right under their nose.

Conveniently, I was name-checked in the post, so I guess I'm entitled to respond.

Matt thinks our limiting factor is time and attention; I think it's value

Here's the marker Matt laid down, challenging us slackers to rise above the hobgoblins of our little minds:

"I don’t think anyone would have the gumption to do this. But what if you had to drop all your existing programs for 6 months. The world wouldn’t end, and if you were dedicated, you’d be forced to learn a lot about other things outside of your knowledge base. Humans are notoriously good at adapting and evolving when forced to do so, but if you give us the choice...we’d rather not."

Today, I can manufacture up to $120,000 per cardmember year on a US Bank Flexperks Travel Rewards card and earn 2 Flexpoints per dollar (at gas stations or grocery stores) or 3 Flexpoints per dollar (in charitable spending), worth up to $4,800 or $7,200 in paid airfare.

I have unlimited time and attention (this is my job), but what I don't have is the willingness to give up concrete, quantifiable value in favor of spending months diving deep into alternative rewards programs on a speculative basis.

Having a routine is fantastic

Much of my monthly manufactured spend proceeds according to a familiar routine. I know which merchants will sell me which products in which quantities, and I buy them with the cards that give me the most value, starting with bonused spending categories and working my way down.

Far from limiting my frame of reference, I find a consistent routine, developed based on the actual credit cards and loyalty programs that I use to pay for my actual travel, gives me more mental bandwidth to dedicate to studying new techniques and calculating how I can integrate them into my travel hacking practice.

Having a routine is (can be) dangerous

What Matt gets exactly right is that if you focus on a single method of manufactured spend, or on credit cards issued by a single bank, or on a single method of liquidation, then you're making yourself vulnerable to local, regional, or national policy changes.

If you travel hack recreationally, that may not be the end of the world; a lot of people who were manufacturing huge volumes before Vanilla Reload Network cards became harder to buy stopped completely once they became increasingly restricted, and never thought about the game again.

No deal lasts forever

At the time of writing, I understand that Target stores are not allowing Prepaid REDcards to be loaded with debit cards. Is this the end?

Honestly, probably not.

But if it is, did you convert all your Serve and Bluebird cards to Prepaid REDcards in anticipation of the deal lasting forever? Why? Serve cards can still be loaded at Family Dollar stores using any PIN-enabled debit card. Bluebird cards can still be loaded at Walmart with US Bank-issued MasterCard and Metabank-issued Visa cards sold at Staples.

The most lucrative deal, the biggest secret you're keeping, even from your fellow travel hackers, won't last forever. When it ends, you can either have a range of unrelated deals to fall back on, or you can find yourself scrambling to learn about other techniques to meet your ongoing travel needs.

Conclusion

There are only 6 programs I earn miles and points in with any intensity:

  • US Bank Flexperks
  • Hilton HHonors
  • Chase Ultimate Rewards
  • Delta Skymiles
  • Barclaycard Arrival+ miles
  • Alaska Airlines Mileage Plan (for crediting paid flights operated by American and Delta)

On the one hand, Matt is right to point out that any constellation of miles and points programs that are earned to the exclusion of other programs raises risks: the risk of devaluation, the risk of increased attention to accounts, the risk of available techniques changing or drying up.

On the other hand, a simplified routine based on the actual value of the points you're earning and, even more importantly, the points you're redeeming, may give you the cognitive freedom you need to stay on top of new and developing techniques.

The single best award redemption, by transfer partner: Chase Ultimate Rewards

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As my regular readers know, I don't chase "aspirational" redemptions; I earn the miles and points I need to pay for the trips I want to take as cheaply as possible.

But many of you do chase aspirational redemptions! That gets me into hot water whenever I point out that a Chase Ultimate Rewards point is worth 1 penny (its cash redemption value), or that American Express Membership Rewards points are hard to redeem for cash.

So in the spirit of reconciliation, I though it would be fun to put together a list of the absolute best redemption values for the transfer partners of each flexible rewards currency. Since I'm most familiar with Ultimate Rewards points, let's start there.

Airline Partners

As a reminder, here are the Chase Ultimate Rewards airline transfer partners:

  • United MileagePlus
  • British Airways Executive Club
  • Korean Airlines SKYPASS
  • Singapore Airlines KrisFlyer
  • Southwest Airlines Rapid Rewards
  • Virgin Atlantic Flying Club

United MileagePlus

Two of the best international first class products, Lufthansa and Singapore, belong to the Star Alliance, and United MileagePlus miles can be redeemed for first class on either airline at their partner award prices. But which is the better redemption?

One-way award seats in Lufthansa first class between New York and Frankfurt cost 110,000 MileagePlus miles, plus $5.60 in taxes and fees. Unless you're a MileagePlus elite, you'll also pay a $75 close-in ticketing fee, since Lufthansa first class seats are generally made available to United only a few days or weeks before departure.

At the time of writing, Lufthansa first class seats between New York and Frankfurt cost $11,049 on October 10, a date Lufthansa first class award seats are also available. Less the $80.60 in taxes and fees, that gives a redemption value of just about 10 cents per Ultimate Rewards point.

We can actually do a hair better than this by flying not to Frankfurt, but to Tokyo's Haneda airport via Frankfurt. This itinerary also costs 110,000 MileagePlus miles, but retails for $952 more, at $12,001, giving us 10.8 cents per MileagePlus mile:

By comparison, Singapore's JFK-Frankfurt flight costs a mere $7,108. In any case, since Singapore Air is also a Chase Ultimate Rewards transfer partner, Lufthansa walks away with an easy victory here.

British Airways Executive Club

A safe choice for best British Airways redemption is a 4,500-Avios American Airlines short-haul flight like Norfolk, VA, to Charlotte, NC, which can get you about 9.9 cents per Ultimate Rewards points.

Knowing that Brazil forbids airlines from adding fuel and passenger surcharges to tickets, I was hopeful that a route like Sao Paulo — London would generate an astronomical value per Avios. But it turns out those flights don't get more expensive by distance in the way that Avios redemptions do! A first class seat from Sao Paulo to London costs just $5,783, which at 120,000 Avios gives a piddling 4.8 cents per point.

You're better off moving to Norfolk.

Korean Airlines SKYPASS

A popular use of SKYPASS is to book cheaper award tickets from the US mainland to Hawaii than those available on domestic US carriers. So, for example, while a Delta Skymiles award ticket to Hawaii from the continental 48 costs a minimum of 45,000 miles roundtrip, a SKYPASS award ticket costs just 35,000 miles.

Delta flies nonstop from Atlanta to Honolulu, so let's use that as our basis for comparison. A roundtrip departing March 8 and returning March 16, on which there's low-level award availability, costs $1,134. Less $11.20 in taxes and fees, that returns a SKYPASS redemption value of 3.24 cents each. That's not bad for SKYPASS miles, but it's not the best.

That's because Korean Airlines SKYPASS miles can also be redeemed for first class on Korean. On April 4, 2016, a first class flight from New York JFK to Seoul Incheon costs $10,032, but just 80,000 SKYPASS miles plus $104.20 in taxes and fees, giving 12.4 cents per SKYPASS mile, the highest transfer value for Ultimate Rewards we've seen yet!

It should be possible to kick that up another few cents per point by booking a single first class award from New York to Sydney for 120,000 SKYPASS miles, but I cannot for the life of me get the Korean Airlines website to price out such an award.

Singapore Airlines KrisFlyer

Remember the disappointing, $7,108 New York - Frankfurt flight operated by Singapore that I mentioned above? The good news is that it costs just 57,375 KrisFlyer miles (after their 15% online booking discount) and $203.30 in taxes and fees, or just over 12 cents per KrisFlyer mile.

There are more expensive Singapore Airlines routes, but they cost many more KrisFlyer miles such that you're unlikely to do better than the above. For example, it costs $984 to continue in first class to Singapore from Frankfurt, but 36,125 more KrisFlyer miles. At 2.7 cents per mile, that's a pretty good redemption in its own right, but it drags down the overall redemption value significantly.

Southwest Airlines Rapid Rewards

Since Southwest is a revenue-based program, you're not doing to do better than 1.6-1.7 cents per Rapid Rewards point unless you have the Companion Pass. If you do, congratulations, you can get up to 3.2-3.4 cents per Rapid Rewards point when booking Wanna Get Away fares.

For example, with the Companion Pass you could fly two passengers from Baltimore, Maryland to Aruba for 11,620 Rapid Rewards points and $31.20 in taxes and fees, a $407.60 value, giving you 3.24 cents per Rapid Rewards point.

Virgin Atlantic Flying Club

Virgin Atlantic has a number of partner airlines that could potentially offer some value, like South African Airways. Their website even contains this mysterious language:

"Economy Class Mileage* 40,000
Business Class Mileage* 50,000
Between Dakar and New York***"

Mysterious because South African Airways does not fly from Dakar to New York, although it's possible to book itineraries connecting in Washington Dulles. Maybe that's what they mean?

Virgin Atlantic does partner with Delta, which basically makes it a poor man's Skyteam partner. You can fly from the US to Europe for 100,000 Flying Club miles roundtrip, as long as you can find Delta low-level availability, compared to 125,000 Skymiles for the same awards. You can fly anywhere in Africa for 120,000 Flying Club miles roundtrip in business class, compared to 140,000 Skymiles to northern Africa and 160,000 Skymiles to South Africa (I think — no award charts, remember?).

I couldn't find any low-level availability on Delta metal to Johannesburg, but a roundtrip business class flight with award availability between New York and Dakar priced out at $3,375. Assuming Virgin Atlantic charges the same taxes and fees as Delta, $127.60, you could get about 2.7 cents per Flying Club mile on such an award.

Hotel Partners

Here are the Chase Ultimate Rewards hotel transfer partners:

  • Hyatt Gold Passport
  • Marriott Rewards/Ritz Carlton Rewards
  • IHG Rewards Club

Hyatt Gold Passport

There are two places you can look for the highest redemption values in a program like Hyatt Gold Passport. You can look at properties in the highest categories during the property's high season (after all, they're there because they're expensive!), or you can look at properties in the lowest categories during major events. So, which approach yields the highest redemption value?

I looked at a range of top-tier properties, and the best I could do was at everyone's favorite aspirational beach resort, the Category 6 Park Hyatt Maldives Hadahaa, where rates go up to $2027 in early January, or 8.1 cents per point. Then Grant pointed to a May 29, 2016, stay at the Park Hyatt Milan, when the Hyatt Daily Rate is $4577 — and rooms are still available for 30,000 Gold Passport points, or 15.26 cents per point.

Other top-tier properties offer fine redemptions, but nothing like that: the Category 7 Park Hyatt Sydney charges about $814 on January 25 (the day before Australia Day), or 30,000 Gold Passport points, for about 2.7 cents per point.

What about on the low end? During CES in Las Vegas, you can book the Hyatt Place Las Vegas for 8,000 Gold Passport points or $338, about 4.2 cents per point. My main problem searching for these low-end redemptions is that enough people have obviously had the same idea that room rates are extremely difficult to find during the Super Bowl, Kentucky Derby, Indianapolis 500, and other high-profile events! So if you want to secure an outsized value during those events, book as early as possible!

Marriott Rewards

Obviously the best Marriott Rewards redemption will involve a Hotel + Air Package, which allows you to buy much more valuable airline miles at a deep discount. Since we've already established that 110,000 MileagePlus miles are worth 10.8 cents each ($11,880), let's use that as our baseline and figure out where to redeem our 7, Category 5 nights.

The most expensive Category 5 Marriott Rewards property I found is the Courtyard Paris Saint Denis, where you can redeem your 7 nights for a stay that costs $3,027, bringing your total return on 250,000 Marriott Rewards points to $14,907, or 5.96 cents per point. That's true, however, If and only if you begin your 7-night stay on July 4, 2016.

Award rooms are not available for those dates. Marriott Rewards is a terrible program.

IHG Rewards Club

IHG Rewards properties get so exorbitantly expensive in points, so fast, that the best awards will invariably be on their PointsBreaks list. I've spent a couple lovely summers in Brno, Czech Republic, so I was pleased to see that I could get 3.6 cents per IHG Rewards point at the Holiday Inn Brno on October 13, which would otherwise go for $180.12.

The best rates found on Hotel Hustle's Hot Rates page top out at 1.94 cents per point (exclusive of taxes), so if you're looking for outsized value from your Ultimate Rewards points, stick to the PointsBreaks list (or look elsewhere).

Conclusion

When I started writing this post I thought this would be an easy and fun exercise. It turned out to be difficult, time-consuming, and boring, which I hope speaks to my basic point: seeking the "best" value from your miles and points is a thankless chore.

You'll always be better off redeeming your miles and points for the trips you actually want to take, rather than the ones some blogger tells you are the best.

Buying Broadway tickets (is expensive)

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On Tuesday I wrote that I was going to New York to see Hamilton, the smash hit Broadway musical. Commenter BetterByDesign astutely asked,

"How the heck did you find Hamilton tickets? Or did you just throw cash into the venture?"

Long story short, I just threw cash into the venture. There are ways to save money on Broadway tickets, but not as many as I'd like.

TKTS for when you don't care what you see

If you're already in New York City, you can head down to the TKTS ticket booth on Times Square (lines can be very long at this booth), the South Street Seaport, or in Brooklyn. They offer discounted tickets to same-day shows on an as-available basis.

If you're just in New York for a weekend, you are going to be stuck with whatever tickets TKTS has available, since there's no way to predict which shows will be offering tickets on a given day.

I've seen some great shows using TKTS, like A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder (Tony award for Best Musical in 2014) and Pippin (Tony award for Best Revival of a Musical in 2013).

Full price box office tickets

If you want to see a popular show and live in New York, you can buy full price tickets from theatre box offices (TKTS also sells full price tickets for future performances). Popular shows sell out far in advance, but you can save hundreds of dollars by paying the face value of your tickets rather than buying them on the resale market.

The resale market

If you don't live in New York and have a particular show you want to see, that leaves the resale market. There are many resale sites, and many of them charge additional administrative fees which can add up to hundreds of dollars. However, most of the sites carry the same inventory, as resellers upload the same ticket to multiple sites to increase their chances of making a sale (sounds familiar, right?).

Having said that, this was my general strategy for paying the lowest price for our Hamilton tickets.

Use SeatGeek to find the cheapest reseller

SeatGeak is a ticket-reselling aggregator, which shows prices available on a range of other ticket reselling sites. They will sell you tickets themselves, but they will also tell you on which other ticket reselling site the tickets were found. For example, here are some tickets available for the January 9, 2016, evening performance of Hamilton:

In this example you can see SeatGeek is listing tickets for sale on:

  • uberseat
  • ravetix.com
  • TN Direct
  • Prime Entertainment

You'll also see tickets sold on FanXchange, TicketCity, and other reselling sites.

Find out how much the tickets are reselling for on the original reselling site

After you've selected a few promising seats, you'll want to see how much the tickets are actually selling for on the original reselling site. In the example above, SeatGeek shows the cheapest ticket as $314 at uberseat.

On uberseat's website, the cheapest tickets price out at just $268:

Sure, you can save some money cutting out SeatGeek, but there's another reason to go directly to the reseller's website: SeatGeek doesn't participate in cash back portals.

Search your favorite cashback portal for payout rates

Here are the ticket resellers that I easily found participating in TopCashBack:

  • ScoreBig. 12% cash back, $30 off purchases of $250 or more in October using code "trickortreat"
  • TicketLiquidator. 12.5% cash back, $10 off purchases of $350 or more using code "TLFALL"
  • TicketCity. 3% cash back.
  • VenueKings.com. 13% cash back, $4.99 off purchases of $40 or more using code "TRICKORTREAT5"
  • PurchaseTix. $9% cash back.

Conclusion

You're never going to make money buying tickets on reselling sites, but using these techniques you can start to get your ticket prices down into the ballpark of full price box office tickets.

Personally, since Delta was paying for our tickets to New York City, I ended up splurging a little bit and buying orchestra seats for Hamilton, but if you're planning far enough in advance and don't care where you sit, you can use these techniques to pay under $200 per ticket for mezzanine seats, for the hottest show of the year!