How I'm positioned going into 2021

With the end of the year in sight and the possibility of travel again appearing on the horizon, I thought it would be unusually desirous to take stock of my current portfolio of rewards currencies, identify any strengths and shortcomings, and apply myself with renewed vigor as needed.

Bank Programs

The three bank-sponsored programs I participate in are Chase Ultimate Rewards, US Bank Flexperks, and Barclay’s Arrival+, and right now my Chase balance is the only one I feel good about. With four Freedom cards I can earn up to 120,000 Ultimate Rewards points per year depending on how the bonus categories fall, and my Ink Plus lets me earn 250,000 more points at office supply stores, preferably during negative cost promotions like the one currently running at Office Depot and OfficeMax.

US Bank Flexpoints are worth 1.5 cents each when redeemed through the US Bank travel portal or through Real-Time Rewards, which allows you to redeem points for their full value against purchases at many merchant categories. That means the Flexperks Travel Rewards card earns the equivalent of 3% cash back at grocery stores, and it’s typically one of my go-to cards for grocery store manufactured spend. However, times haven’t been typical, and it fell out of my rotation in favor of cards offering temporary benefits during the pandemic, like my Chase Hyatt card and American Express Delta Platinum card, which is earning the equivalent of 1.5 SkyMiles per dollar (at $1,000 thresholds), with bonus MQM’s along for the ride. I wouldn’t normally consider buying SkyMiles for 2 cents each, but the bonus MQM’s (and recent news that all 2020 MQM will roll over to 2021) and the time-limited nature of the deals ended up convincing me to put a fair amount of spend on the card this year.

Finally, I still have a Barclays Arrival+ card, which used to function as a decent 2%+ cash back card with a chip-and-PIN functionality for use abroad and a trip delay benefit, which made it my go-to card when booking paid flights. Effective November 1, 2019, the trip delay benefit was removed, so I can’t recommend anyone pay an annual fee on the card anymore, as long as they have access to 2% or higher cash back on unbonused spend with another card (Fidelity Rewards or Citi Double Cash, for example).

Airline Programs

From one perspective, my airline mile balances are even more dismal than my bank balances. My highest balance is with Delta, with about 40,000 miles, and my lowest with Alaska, at around 13,000, with American and United in between. In hindsight this ended up being the ideal way to go into the pandemic, since the balances that ended up stranded and unredeemable since March were so minuscule. Looking forward, of course, I’d ideally like to get at least some of those balances up in order to opportunistically redeem them in the summer and fall.

My United Mileage Plus balance is the easiest to address since it’s an Ultimate Rewards transfer partner, so my strategy for earning more Ultimate Rewards points works as a Mileage Plus strategy as well.

In 2021 I’ll have two Delta companion certificates: my 2020 companion certificate with its extended expiration date of December 31, 2021, and the new 2021 certificate I’ll receive in May. Those should cover all my domestic Delta travel in 2021.

With my family on the West Coast, my partner’s family easily accessible on American Airlines, and Alaska joining oneworld on March 31, 2021, I expect Mileage Plan miles will be one of the most valuable currencies for me for the next few years. Unfortunately, opportunities to earn them besides through flying are pretty limited. I have a good relationship with Bank of America, so I’ll keep an eye out for heightened credit card signup bonuses in 2021 (the current offer is for 40,000 miles with a waived annual fee the first year).

Another option for flights operated by Alaska and American will be to transfer Ultimate Rewards points to British Airways Avios, which should be redeemable for the lowest-priced award tickets on either carrier. Tickets to the Pacific Northwest cost the same with Avios as they do with Mileage Plan, and British Airways offers periodic bonuses when transferring points in. Unfortunately, those low-level award tickets are few and far between, so realistically Mileage Plan miles and companion fares will remain the best way to book Alaska Airlines flights. Flights to the Midwest on American cost just 15,000 Avios roundtrip, which would create a decent opportunity if flights weren’t already so cheap. Instead, I’ll likely just pay with Flexpoints or Arrival+ miles and credit the flights to Alaska.

Finally, my American balance, about 15,000 miles, is low enough that my two best options are to either spend it down entirely (for example on a 15,000-mile roundtrip redemption to the Midwest), or to aggressively boost it with a new credit card application. Since Citi doesn’t want my business anymore, that would mean a Barclays Aviator Red MasterCard (current signup bonus of 50,000 miles, $99 annual fee not waived). With no minimum spend requirement, that’s almost a tempting offer, but I don’t have a concrete enough redemption in mind to justify the application for now.

Hotel Programs

My two main hotel programs are Hilton and Hyatt, and here things are actually looking alright.

While my World of Hyatt points balance is low, I’m sitting on one Category 1-4 free night award from 2020 (extended until December 31, 2021), earning another by spending $4,000 on the card by December 31, 2020, and will receive a third when my card is renewed in April 2021. This is perfect as I already have (tentative, vaccine-dependent) plans for these awards in July, since a new Category 4 Hyatt opened in Portland in February, 2020. For additional Hyatt stays in 2021 I’ll be depending on Ultimate Rewards transfers.

My Hilton balance is in much sorrier shape. I actually went into the pandemic with a reasonable reserve, but it’s also the only hotel currency I’ve redeemed since March: two nights on the Eastern Shore in August and a 4-night stay in the Midwest in October. Without accelerated earning or definite plans, I simply stopped putting grocery store manufactured spend on my American Express Surpass card. Since American Express updated their website to show progress towards the $15,000 spend requirement to earn a free weekend night certificate, I realized there’s virtually no way I’ll spend that much on the card this year. Simply put, it was a wasted year not earning one of my favorite rewards currencies or the free night certificate that’s a main justification for keeping the card. In 2021, I’ll be ramping up spend again and getting ready for redemptions in the summer and fall.

Conclusion

I’ve gone into a lot of detail here because I think readers benefit more from knowing precise information they can compare against their own experience, rather than the idealized stories people are paid to sell. My situation is crystal clear: I try to earn the miles and points I need for the trips I want to take, and since March, I haven’t wanted to take any trips. On the contrary, I’ve wanted to keep my household safe, and keep my friends and family safe, so I pivoted my strategy towards earning cash back I can “redeem” today, rather than miles and points that I wouldn’t be able to use for 12-18 months.

As the vaccine enters widespread distribution, it’s time to start thinking about pivoting back. That means ramping up my most useful currency, Chase Ultimate Rewards, while also starting to pay renewed attention to Alaska Airlines, Hyatt, and Hilton earning opportunities.