"Where Are the Customers' Yachts?" is a pretty good book

This is a review of "Where Are the Customers' Yachts?" by Fred Schwed Jr. You can find all my previous book reviews here. If you're interested in buying a copy, I hope you'll consider using my Amazon Associates referral link.

I have a technique I like to call "reverse showrooming." In retail parlance, "showrooming" is when a customer comes into a physical store to inspect a product, then ultimately orders it for a lower price on Amazon.com. I "reverse showroom" by keeping track of books I'm interested in reading by adding them to my Amazon wish list, then checking them out for free from the public library.

"Where Are the Customers' Yachts?" is the first book I've ever checked out from the public library that was so good I immediately ordered 2 copies from Amazon in order to lend them out to friends and family.

It isn't the only book you'll ever need to read about investing in the stock market, but it should be the first book you read about investing in the stock market.

History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes

Fred Schwed Jr. originally published "Where Are the Customers' Yachts?" in 1940. Despite the intervening years, with all its wars and revolutions, there's scarcely a single word in the book that doesn't apply just as accurately today as it did when it was written (with one exception, below). Moreover, a vast corpus of economic research has developed to provide statistical proof for what Schwed learned from practical experience.

Schwed is much funnier than I am, but I will attempt to do justice to his basic attitude towards investing:

• Making predictions is hard, especially about the future;
• If someone can consistently and accurately predict future price movements, they are able to command vast sums for doing so;
• But even someone who consistently and accurately predicts price movements is almost certainly just lucky.

Schwed predicted almost every development in the world of investing

Decades of economic research have now established that active mutual funds perform no better than passive index funds, after management fees. But Fred Schwed doesn't need your decades of economic research. In 1940, he wrote:

"The subject of choosing profitable financial investments does not lend itself to competence. There is almost no visible supply."

It is breathtaking to read Schwed recommend — in 1940 — a primitive system of passive index investing:

"The average small investor needs a certain amount of diversification, but he can get it for himself by buying five-share lots instead of hundred-share lots. The added expense of doing his business this way is negligible. If his funds are too limited even for that procedure, the only diversification he needs is to put some of his money into life-insurance payments, some into the savings bank, and the remainder into his right-hand trouser pocket."

Michael Lewis catalogued the difficulties large investment banks have buying and selling large blocks of shares in his 2014 book "Flash Boys." Fred Schwed described them in 1940:

"An investment trust [i.e. mutual fund] should be good and large, because this tends to make the expenses of running it a negligible percentage of the whole. But when the trust is big in size, the investing problem becomes increasingly difficult. A fifty-thousand-share position is a hard thing to buy and usually a harder one to sell. If the quotation on such a position rises twenty points in the newspaper, the trust scores up a million-dollar profit on their book value, but of course actually realizing on profit on such a block is apt to be quite a different thing."

Schwed is curiously obsessed with margin investing

The only part of "Where Are the Customers' Yachts?" that doesn't seem as relevant today as it was when it was written is his discussion of "margin." Margin, for those born after 1930, refers to the regrettable willingness of brokers to allow their customers to buy stocks not with money, but with a line of credit backed by a small amount of collateral. As Schwed explains:

"We assume that it is a wise and profitable venture to buy 100 shares of United Fido at ten, paying $1,000 for it. Ergo, wouldn't it be even better to buy 200 shares paying the same $1,000? And even better to make it three or four hundred if we can find a sufficiently kindly broker to do us this favor?

"The answer is no. But I only know one way of proving it to you conclusively. Go try it."

While investing on margin is still legal and, I assume, encouraged by the more unscrupulous stock brokers, it doesn't occupy the American imagination in the way it seems to have when Schwed was writing. Although in fairness, Tim Geithner did something indistinguishable when he borrowed money from JPMorgan in order to back his stake at his new Warburg Pincus gig.

Let's check back in 10 years to see how that plays out.

In 76 years, investor psychology has changed not one jot nor tittle

Ultimately, "Where Are the Customers' Yachts?" is a book about psychology: specifically, the psychology of people who decide to put a little bit of money to work for them in the stock market. If you don't recognize yourself in it, then you've probably never put a little bit of money to work for you in the stock market.

Fortunately, you have one great tool Fred Schwed Jr. and his clients and customers didn't have and indeed didn't imagine: low-fee, passive, indexed Vanguard mutual funds.

Unfortunately, you can only take advantage of those funds if you can convince yourself to actually invest in them. And as much as it pains me to say it, neither Schwed nor I are going to be any help in that department.

Starting from scratch: hotel stays

In yesterday's post I talked about how to develop a strategy for booking airline tickets that works for you. As I said then, "the options you have available today are restricted by the decisions you made in the past." For example, your ability to get approved for new American Express credit cards depends on the number of American Express credit cards you currently have (in general folks are restricted to 4 total American Express credit cards each).

Hotels are cheap, if you ignore loyalty

Yesterday I explained that airfares are cheap, if booked using cheaply acquired fixed-value points. The opposite is true of hotels: while you can redeem fixed-value points for hotels, you'll be redeeming them against the full retail price of the hotel room, which means you're virtually certain to overpay.

For example, it's possible to use a cashback portal like TopCashBack to click through to Hotels.com and earn 9% cash back from TopCashBack, plus 10% back in the form of a Hotels.com award night when you book and stay 10 nights through Hotels.com.

There are additional benefits to booking through an online travel agency: you'll be able to pay with the credit card of your choice, meaning you'll earn that credit card's reward points as well, while redeeming US Bank Flexpoints, Citi ThankYou Points, or Chase Ultimate Rewards points through their booking tools necessarily keeps you from earning credit card rewards on your reservations.

But the most important benefit of booking through an online travel agency, rather than a hotel chain's own website, is that it frees you to book the cheapest hotel available (that meets your other requirements like location and amenities)!

To see how this works, let's take the example of a weekend stay in Portland, OR, from May 20-22, 2016. Once I've filtered by 3-star hotels in the downtown neighborhood, I find that the cheapest Hilton property is $189 per night, the cheapest Marriott property is $213 per night, and the cheapest Starwood property is $269 per night, before taxes.

Now, clicking through TopCashBack and booking through Hotels.com will save you 19% off whichever property you choose. But being agnostic as to the chain you're staying with saves you even more: an additional 11.27% compared to being loyal to Marriott and an additional 29.7% compared to Starwood loyalty.

Loyalty programs: cheap, but loyal

Hotel loyalty programs can also bring down the cost of your stays from retail, but only under certain conditions.

The biggest problem with hotel loyalty programs is that if you're not saving money on every single stay (compared to the online travel agency method described above), then you're faced with the unpleasant choice of deciding between overpaying for a hotel stay within the loyalty program or saving money but earning online travel agency rewards too slowly to notice your savings, or, God forbid, even wind up seeing a message like this:

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Having said that, there are 3 principle ways to use hotel loyalty programs to consistently bring down the price of your stays:

• Wyndham Rewards. The Barclaycard Wyndham Rewards credit card earns 2 Wyndham Rewards points everywhere, and Wyndham has a huge global footprint. Since all Wyndham Rewards properties cost 15,000 Wyndham Rewards properties per night, if your hotel stays typically cost more than about $150 per night (or about $180 before accounting for cash back portal and online travel agency rewards), you'll save money manufacturing spend on the Wyndham Rewards credit card compared to a 2% cash back card.
• Hyatt Gold Passport. If your travel takes you primarily to the kinds of mid-size European cities or larger American cities served by Hyatt, then you can often save money by transferring Chase Ultimate Rewards points to Hyatt Gold Passport from a Sapphire Preferred or Ink Plus credit card, earned with a Chase Freedom Unlimited card. Compared to paying with cash back earned on a 2% cash back card, you need to get a consistent value of at least 1.59 cents per Hyatt Gold Passport point to break even, since cash back is worth roughly 19% more than face value when spent on hotels at Hotels.com.
• Hilton HHonors. The good thing about Hilton's program is that, like Wyndham, Hilton has a huge global footprint, so it's not unreasonable to expect you'll be able to find Hilton properties to accommodate you almost anywhere you travel. Since the Hilton HHonors Surpass American Express earns 6 HHonors points per dollar at supermarkets and gas stations, you'll need to consistently get about 0.4 cents per HHonors point in order to come out ahead compared to a 2% cash back card, with the cash back spent at an online travel agency like Hotels.com. The $189 room we found in Portland above would cost about $186 after discounts and taxes, or 50,000 HHonors points, giving a value of 0.37 cents per HHonors point — in other words, you'd be better off earning cash back and using it to make a Hotels.com reservation at the same hotel, which happens to be the cheapest option for the weekend I searched.

It's not unreasonable to suggest that the Club Carlson Premier Rewards credit card, which earns 5 Gold Points per dollar spent everywhere, might be a competitive option for manufacturing unbonused spend. But due to the heavy discount afforded when using cash to book stays through online travel agencies, you'd need to consistently get 0.48 cents per Gold Point on all your Club Carlson award stays to break even compared to cash. Club Carlson is simply not a program that affords that kind of value anymore: Hotel Hustle's average value found for Club Carlson is 0.41 cents per point, with a median value of 0.379 cents per point.

Conclusion

As you can see, just as I showed yesterday, the best approach to booking hotel stays as cheaply as possible will depend on your situation: the fixed cost of hotel award nights can be an argument in their favor if you typically travel to expensive cities during peak travel times, or it can be an argument against them if you're a flexible leisure traveler who travels when hotels are cheap in dollar terms, and can be made even cheaper using online travel agency rewards.

Tomorrow I'll conclude this series with a look at the prepaid and alternative banking products I would use differently if I were starting out from scratch.

Am I mainly a domestic traveler? Does it matter?

The idea for this post came to me last weekend when a reader I met in DC suggested that I'm "mainly a domestic traveler," in contrast to his own travel style as an international business class traveler.

This exchange happened to resonate with me since I remembered a post Matt at Saverocity wrote last year which claimed I tend "to fly on these domestic tickets a lot, leveraging super sweet spots with the Flexperks and other programs," while he "see[s] little of [me] flying internationally."

I was a bit surprised by both claims, since I think of myself as doing a lot of international travel.

So, am I mainly a domestic traveler? What does or would that mean?

My 2015 travel was mainly domestic

In 2015, I spent a total of 81 days wholly or partially traveling, only 11 days of which were spent traveling internationally, on my Italian caper.

That produces a fairly low 14% of travel days spent on international travel, which suggests I may, indeed, be primarily a domestic traveler.

My 2016 travel (so far) is mostly international

The travel I've booked so far in 2016 is much more evenly split: of the 35 days I've either traveled or have booked for 2016, 18 of them are international, on my upcoming summer vacation in Europe, while 17 are domestic, including my January trip to New York and March trip to San Francisco and my upcoming trip to Lexington, Kentucky.

That being said, I'm sure my travel in the second half of 2016 will bring the ratio of domestic versus international travel days up substantially.

Folks should do whichever kind of travel interests them most

I have a buddy in the venture capital space who once explained to me that when a venture capitalist invests, he or she doesn't buy a portion of the existing company, they buy a portion of the company as it will exist post-investment.

In other words, the investor isn't buying a share of the scrappy garage-based company, they're buying a share of the company once it moves into its swanky new headquarters in Brooklyn.

People sometimes seem to apply a similar principle to their own travel once they begin travel hacking. They gradually (or suddenly) become less interested in taking the trips they used to take at a fraction of the cost, and become increasingly excited about booking travel that never would have occurred to them before they learned just how cheap travel could become.

Know and remember who you are

There is a vast travel hacking blogosphere intent on selling you on the most comfortable new airline equipment, the longest new routes, and the best new inflight champagne.

If you were jealous and anxious about the airline equipment and inflight service you were missing out on before you started travel hacking, then by all means, use travel hacking as a tool for satisfying your envy, if you think it will help.

But if you were fine traveling in economy before you discovered travel hacking, it's worth thinking long and hard about whether you'd rather take the same trips and pay a fraction of the price, while saving the difference, or pay the same amount and fly in a cabin of service that meant nothing to you before bloggers and forums starting explaining how you haven't lived until you've spent 10 hours in a slightly more comfortable box.

Conclusion

I'm well aware that my readers are an eclectic bunch and I'm not in the position to tell anybody what cabin anybody should be booking their domestic or international travel in, or which currency they should be booking it with.

What I'm interested in is keeping my readers grounded in the real world they actually inhabit, in the face of a blogosphere intent on pumping awards balances as high as possible with credit card applications that don't make a lick of sense in the context of the trips they're actually interested in taking.

How to meet your favorite blogger (as long as it's me)

I love meeting readers, for a lot of reasons. It lets me get a sense of what kind of people are attracted to this site, and what they like about it. It gives me an unparalleled chance to learn since, as I'm fond of saying, every travel hacker knows something you don't know. And of course it's nice to be reassured that there are really human beings out there reading my blog and not just bots pulling my e-mail address for spam directories.

I've now met quite a few readers all around the country, both during my own vacations and while attending (slightly) more organized gatherings like the Saverocity DO's and TravelCon II last year. With that experience under my belt, here are some tips for what you can do if you'd like to meet me in person.

Follow me on Twitter

I live on Twitter, as my Twitter followers will warn you, and I usually tweet about my upcoming travel destinations and while traveling, depending on my access to the internet. That's the best way to find out where I am and where I'm going.

If we'll be in the same place, contact me

You can direct message me on Twitter, or send me an e-mail, and I'll usually get back to you in pretty short order, again depending on my internet access and how busy I am.

Suggest one or two concrete times and places

This is typically the key hangup. I don't know your city, I don't know your geography, I don't know what you call downtown versus what I call downtown, and if we have to do a bunch of laps back and forth while I'm on vacation, I'm gonna lose interest real quick.

But as long as you're specific about some times and places you'll be available, I'll usually try to join you for at least a beer or two.

Blog subscribers are also invited to subscribers-only meetups

At the suggestion of a long-time subscriber, about a year ago I started holding subscribers-only meetups, which are chances to hang out not just with me but with fellow travel hackers who have decided to support this site through a monthly blog subscription. So far I've held subscribers-only meetups in Chicago and New York City, and the feedback has been terrific. After all, my readers have a lot more to teach each other than I have to teach anybody!

And of course don't be offended if I can't make it

I take my vacations seriously, which means a lot of sleeping in, a lot of site-seeing, and a lot of late nights. So I might not be able to find the time to meet with readers on any given vacation. It's me, not you, so don't take it personally!

A belated 2015 end-of-year accounting

For the last two years, I've shared an accounting of my year in earning and burning miles and points (2013 and 2014). A reader recently reached out and asked whether I would do something similar for 2015.

The more volume I've pushed through my credit cards and loyalty accounts, the more difficult it's become to track the precise number of miles and points I earn each year. This isn't because of a lack of attention to detail; I actually maintain an unnecessarily-meticulous record of all the fees I incur while manufacturing spend.

The problem is simply that loyalty programs make it terribly obnoxious to track this kind of activity, so unless you track it throughout the year, you're left flailing at the end of the year to figure out the final score.

For example, if you have an American Airlines AAdvantage or IHG co-branded credit card, every time you redeem miles or points you get a 10% rebate. Barclaycard Arrival+ cardholders get a 5% rebate on all their redeemed miles. Should those points be reported as "earned," or deducted from "redeemed" miles?

Likewise, if I redeem Ultimate Rewards points by transferring them to United or Hyatt, and then redeem those United and Hyatt points for travel, where are the appropriate columns to debit and credit the transactions?

Nonetheless, as your humble servant, I did go through all the accounts I've previously reported on and calculated the total number of points I redeemed in 2015. So without further ado, here are my total redeemed mile and point totals for calendar year 2015:

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As you can see, my total redeemed balances come to 1,678,000 miles and points. This is more or less meaningless for the reasons I explained above (Hyatt, United, and British Airways redemptions are counted twice, both above and below the central line), but hopefully it gives the curious an idea of the rewards currencies I choose to focus on.

How much do you charge friends and family for travel?

Travel hacking is a specialized combination of knowledge, skills, and opportunities, plus of course making the time to take advantage of them. For those willing to invest in this world, the payoff is tremendous: the ability to pay for travel at a steep discount, whether you're buying luxury accommodations for the price of a Motel 6, or getting a Motel 6 for the price of a youth hostel.

Once you've invested the time and attention to learning those skills, it's natural to want to share the rewards with friends and family who, at least in my case, treat travel hacking as a curious combination of magic and fraud.

While I'm always eager to help out, being both a businessman and a poor person means I like to look for mutually beneficial arrangements when booking travel for my loved ones. In that spirit I think there are basically three models one can use when trying to help people save money on travel.

Offer a fixed discount off retail

This strategy makes the most sense for "arm's length" transactions. If you have more miles and points than you have near-term plans for, you can offer to book travel for friends and family at a fixed discount off the price they're already planning to pay.

If someone wants to book a $600 domestic flight, and you discover there's low-level award availability (or, better yet, discounted award availability like that offered to Citi AAdvantage credit cardholders), you can offer to book the flights for a mere $450. This is a classic win-win situation: the traveler gets a 75% discount off retail, and you get 1.8 cents or more per mile in cash — a pretty good redemption!

The drawback of this method is that there are situations where it simply doesn't apply: if a flight is cheap enough, or the mileage cost is high enough, there may simply not be a middle ground in which the booker and traveler can meet to mutual benefit.

Charge the opportunity cost of earning (or redeeming for cash) your points

This is the strategy I usually follow when offering to book travel for my close friends and family. If a hotel room costs 40,000 HHonors points, I'll offer to book it for $141, since that's the amount of cash back I could have earned manufacturing the same $6,667 on a 2.105% cash back card. In other words, I want to be "made whole," but I'm not interested in extracting any profit out of the transaction. If that's a discount off retail they'll usually be interested, and if not, there's no harm done.

But there are two pitfalls here. The first is figuring out what your actual opportunity cost is. In the case of hotel points or airline miles earned with a credit card (at the expense of cash back), the calculation is simple, as shown above. But if you're redeeming Ultimate Rewards points for a friend's Hyatt stay, the relevant cost isn't how much cash you could have earned instead of earning Ultimate Rewards points, it's how much the Ultimate Rewards points are worth if redeemed for cash. The same is true of any rewards currency that can be directly redeemed for cash, like US Bank Flexpoints.

The second wrinkle is valuing instruments that are, due to price compression, worth manifestly less than their face value to the travel hacker. For example, a $400 American Airlines voluntary denied boarding voucher is worth much less than $400 to me, since I can redeem 20,000 US Bank Flexpoints, worth $200 if redeemed for cash, for the same flight (in reality it's not quite that bad since the voucher has the added flexibility of being combinable with cash for flights at the bottom of a Flexperks redemption band).

When deciding the opportunity cost of something like that, you could either think about the actual delay that earned you the voucher in the first place (how much is 5 hours in a Chicago airport worth? Did you have to buy lunch?), or simply assign it the value of the points you would use to book a flight of the same value. In the above example, that could be the $200 cash value of 20,000 Flexpoints.

Travel is free (for other people)

The third option, of course, is to just give travel away! What are you, some kind of cheapskate?

For children, grandchildren, nieces, nephews, parents, grandparents, and anyone you're about to propose to, the best option is not to charge them anything for their travel. Your miles and points didn't cost you much, you have too many of them, and it'll mean the world to them to get to see the world.

This is the strategy I use when booking vacations for my partner and I, and it's fun. I heartily recommend occasionally splurging on your loved ones, the operative word being "occasionally."

I don't mean to get all philosophical this close to the end of the post, but people basically don't value stuff they get for free. Or, to put a slightly finer point on it, people quickly get used to getting stuff for free and quickly come to accept it as the natural order of things, rather than a gift or treat for a special occasion.

That's why I think for kids or siblings it's probably better in the long run to offer a big discount off retail rather than spread free trips around like gelt at Hanukkah.

Conclusion

So, what did I miss? Do you charge your loved ones for "free" travel, and if so, how much?

Personal finance digression: Robinhood is a pretty good app

Every once in a while I take a break from blogging about travel hacking and write about whatever personal finance topics are on my mind. For the past few weeks I've been playing around with an app called Robinhood, and thought I'd share my impressions.

Robinhood is a mobile-only trading platform

I don't exactly understand why mobile-only applications are so popular at the moment, but Robinhood is a good example of one. As far as I can tell, there is no way to log into your Robinhood account on their website to view past trades, deposits, withdrawals, dividends, etc.

Fortunately, the app is pretty good! The main page of the app shows the current value of your account, including cash and the market value of all the shares you currently own. Below that, there's a newsfeed that shows headlines based on general market events and news specific to the shares you're tracking. Finally, the main page shows your current share positions and any ticker symbols you've saved for the app to track.

That latter functionality works even if you don't have any shares deposited with Robinhood. In other words, you can use the app to simply track the price of any stocks and ETF's you're interested in.

I've always been curious why most brokerages report share prices with a 20-minute delay, which doesn't seem particularly consumer-friendly. In any case, it's cool that Robinhood reports share prices in real-time.

Buried slightly deeper in the app's menus are the options to view past transactions, make deposits to and withdrawals from your Robinhood account, cancel pending orders, and all the other things you might want to do with a brokerage account. They even show you all your scheduled dividend payouts on a single screen, which I've never seen in a brokerage account before (although my experience with them is limited).

Robinhood executes commission-free trades of US stocks and ETF's

Now we come to the real point of the app: Robinhood doesn't charge any commission to buy or sell US stocks and exchange-traded funds.

Most brokerage firms will charge you $7 or more to execute simple trades. If you want to buy or sell a single share, that commission can easily dwarf any paper profits you made on the underlying security.

There's not much else to say: Robinhood doesn't charge those commissions. They do list a number of fees for trading listed foreign securities, "Euroclear," and "Canadian." Those situations haven't come up for me yet.

Robinhood makes deposits from a bank account immediately available

This is a neat gimmick: in order to get you trading as soon as possible, Robinhood makes funds available immediately when you initiate a deposit from your linked bank account.

When I initiated a purchase in my Vanguard brokerage account the other day, it took 3 or 4 days for the funds to become available and the price had already moved away from me, so I do appreciate this feature of Robinhood.

Two minor problems and one philosophical grievance

There are two things that will become immediately obvious as soon as you start using Robinhood:

• Robinhood does not service tax-advantaged accounts. You can't set up Robinhood as a traditional IRA, Roth IRA, Health Savings Account, 529 College Savings account, or any other kind of account besides a taxable brokerage account. If you're in a tax bracket where short term and long term capital gains are taxed at different rates from ordinary income, you have to be aware of what kinds of capital gains and losses you create through the app. For my sins I've already earned $15 in short term capital gains which I'm not looking forward to reporting next year.
• Robinhood's newsfeed function is not hosted natively in the app. I think the newsfeed is a sort of silly gimmick, but if a headline does catch your attention you have to wait for your mobile browser to load the website, which more often than not has a paywall keeping you from reading the article that interested you! Note to all app developers: If you're going to have a newsfeed, host the articles on your app!

Still, those are both quibbles. The real problem with Robinhood is that it makes day-trading incredibly easy, and more or less encourages its users to day-trade. It does this in two ways.

First, by not charging fees for each trade, Robinhood removes any disincentive from quickly moving in and out of stocks. Don't get me wrong: I don't think it's good that brokerages charge fees for trades. That's money customers would rather keep. But that basically bad practice does at least discourage people from buying and selling stocks based on minor price changes. It acts as a subtle encouragement to hold securities for the long term.

Second, the newsfeed is, more or less, a stream of constant headlines telling you to buy, sell, or short whatever stocks you happen to have loaded into Robinhood. Their algorithm simply shows all headlines related to your shares from a range of financial websites, blogs, and actual news sources. For ConocoPhilips, my current newsfeed shows:

• ConocoPhilips: Shorts Closing In On The Bottom
• How To Play The Growth In US Oil Exports With Fat Dividends (Part 1)
• Oil Patch: The 'Circle The Drain' Phase Begins
• Short Conoco Philips Now

You can, and should, ignore the newsfeed, but as far as I can tell you can't hide or mute it, and it creates this sensation of light dread whenever I open the app.

Conclusion: Gambling is fun

Robinhood should not be your main brokerage account. That should be some place like Vanguard, where you can buy low-cost mutual funds without paying a commission, and set up tax-advantaged accounts like IRA's.

But if you have some money set aside for fun, Robinhood really does allow you to buy and sell US listed shares and ETF's without paying a commission, leaving you all the upside — and downside — risk from your stock market hunches.

Besides that, Robinhood allows you to buy and sell Vanguard ETF's like VTI (Total Stock Market ETF) and VXUS (Total International Stock ETF). As I like to say, although the personal finance and financial planning industries are obsessed with tax-advantaged accounts, there's no law against holding securities in a normal, taxable brokerage account. So if you'd like to save more money than you're able to in your IRA's and 401(k) accounts, you can buy and hold low-cost Vanguard ETF's in Robinhood without paying any commissions for the trades.

P.S. My top-secret gambling strategy

It seems crazy to write this much about a trading platform without revealing my proprietary gambling strategy. I have a simple rule: always bet the hard ways.

Wait, that's craps.

My proprietary gambling-on-the-stock-market strategy is to buy consistent dividend-paying stocks when they near their 52-week low. If the stock price recovers, I sell it. If it doesn't, I collect the dividend until it does. So I bought Royal Dutch Shell at an average of $38.73 and sold it at $44.86 (for my sins it's now at $45.27). Currently I'm holding BP, International Paper (IP), ConocoPhilips (COP), and the aforementioned VXUS.

I don't recommend this strategy to anybody, since it's based on nothing. But gambling, famously, is pretty fun.

On communities and responsibilities

I try not to get too worked up over other bloggers' behavior. If you want to throw up a generic Wordpress template with a creditcards.com affiliate link, you'll never hear a peep out of me.

Of course, I make an exception for the very small number of credit card affiliate bloggers who dominate the credit card affiliate space, because the nature of the internet tends to concentrate their popularity and wealth far beyond their contributions to the genre. So when a Thought Leader From Behind misbehaves, I'll sometimes throw out some well-deserved snark on Twitter.

Yesterday was interesting

I spent most of the day yesterday in the car, so it wasn't until I got home in the afternoon that I discovered that a minor affiliate blogger had written a post describing how, in the course of manufacturing spend, she was splitting up and concealing money order deposits in order to avoid federal transaction reporting requirements.

The internet being the internet, the comments section of that post exploded with criticism, mockery, and derision. Likewise apparently the entire Twitter travel hacking community chimed in on various sides of both the substantive question of whether what she was describing was the federal crime of structuring and with more emotionally-charged personal attacks.

Individual responsibility is a weird concept

Two sentiments stood out to me in the course of that wide-ranging conversation. First, in two tweets Matt from Saverocity tried to explain to the blogger that she needed to "stop arguing and start thinking if your post can do harm to your readers" and then reiterated "This isn't about you."

The second sentiment that stood out to me was that the blogger wasn't responsible for what her readers did, and that it's everyone's individual responsibility to do their own research to determine if what they're doing is legal or not. That's something I see frequently when larger affiliate bloggers are criticized for peddling bad advice: readers have only themselves to blame if they follow the advice of these jet-setting clowns.

There's an obvious tension between those two sentiments: either we are in a constant war of all against all and answer to no one, or we're responsible for the consequences of our actions — particularly when they cause harm to others.

If you know anything about me, you can guess I fall on the side of taking responsibility for the consequences of our actions.

People have been recording their thoughts, ideas, and experiences for a long time in private and professional journals, diaries, and logs. And a diarist who never publishes a word of her diary really can write anything they want and answer to no one!

But publishing those logs online, and especially doing so for commercial purposes, moves you into the public sphere and embeds you in a community of people. To then suggest that you're not accountable to anyone for anything you write, and placing the onus of judgment entirely on your readers, strikes me as a deeply cynical approach to life.

The blogger's aggressive reaction to criticism treated that criticism as a personal attack on her strong lady blogger identity. But Matt wasn't trying to convince her to get married, pregnant, and join the PTA; he was trying to convince her to take responsibility for correcting her error as quickly as possible, to avoid additional harm to innocent people who might take her advice at face value!

Conclusion

There are as many different approaches to travel hacking as there are travel hackers, and it's not surprising that different bloggers will take a variety of different approaches. In that context I think everyone has responsibilities: bloggers should exercise judgment in putting their readers' interests first, and readers should exercise judgment in both identifying and sharing the blogs they find helpful and steering others away from blogs that are mercenary, unhelpful, or, as in this case, downright dangerous.

Entitlement is only the start of a loyalty conversation

Sometimes travel hacking is about figuring out what you're entitled to and how to get it. It's not unusual to read blog posts about Starwood Preferred Guest elites searching for suites right up until the minute they check in, to make sure that the front desk staff give them the very best room they're entitled to.

Likewise, you're entitled to use Delta voluntary denied boarding vouchers for other passengers, as long as the person the voucher was issued to is one of the passengers on a single reservation. In practice, Delta makes that difficult, but not impossible.

Other times, what you're entitled to is just the starting point of a conversation.

Background: tour of Central Europe, 3 nights at a time

Before the June 1, 2015, Club Carlson devaluation, I booked a 9-night trip through Central Europe, with 3 nights at the Radisson Blu Beke Hotel, Budapest, 3 nights at the Park Inn Danube, Bratislava, and 2 nights at the Radisson Blu Style Hotel, Vienna.

The 3 nights at the Park Inn Danube cost 18,000 Gold Points total, for one 2-night reservation and one 1-night reservation.

The Park Inn Danube closed out from under me!

On Tuesday the manager of the Park Inn Danube e-mailed me to say:

"We hope this mail finds you well and we take this chance to wish you a fantastic start of New Year

We are happy to inform you [editor's note: I have no idea why he's "happy" to inform me of this] that our property, Park Inn Danube Bratislava, will go under full refurbishment from 1st of March 2016 until 1st of September 2016.

Due to this we are, unfortunately, not able to provide you with hotel accommodation as per your reservation...as the hotel operations will be completely ceased for the mentioned period.

We suggest you cancel your reservation trough Club Carlson in order to retrieve your Club Carlson points and we apologize for the short notice.

If you will still be interested to come to Bratislava, we strongly suggest booking the Radisson Blu Carlton that is located in the same area of Park Inn Danube."

How to turn 18,000 Gold Points into 84,000 Gold Points

When I found out my hotel had been closed, I immediately sized up the situation: I had 18,000 Gold Points locked up in my existing reservation. Bratislava doesn't have a ton of hotels in the old city, but as the general manager of the Park Inn Danube pointed out, it does have another Club Carlson property about a block away. Without the last-night-free benefit, three nights at the Radisson Blu Carlton Hotel would cost 84,000 Gold Points.

When I first called the Park Inn reservations line, the best suggestion the representative came up with was to cancel my existing reservations, and use the points for a cash and points reservation at the Radisson Blu. That would have left me out 15,000 Gold Points and $300.

And in fact, that's likely all I was entitled to.

So I took off my travel hacker hat and put on my civilian hat. If a civilian had a 3-night award stay planned a year in advance, and the hotel closed out from under them, they wouldn't agree to replace 3 free nights with a $300 paid stay! Instead, I explained the situation to the phone representative again, and told her I expected Club Carlson to reaccommodate me at the Radisson Blu Carlton Hotel.

She transferred me to their "Customer Care" department, and after a mere 30 minutes on hold, Club Carlson had deposited 66,000 additional Gold Points into my account and made me a 3-night reservation at the Radisson Blu:

View fullsize

Conclusion

Whenever I get a points windfall like this, I take the opportunity to think through my existing reservations to see if there's any way to optimize them for price or comfort.

For example, I could cancel the new award reservation, rebook the hotel with cash (about $300), then use 70,000 of the Gold Points for a third night at the Radisson Blu Style Hotel, Vienna. But hotels in Vienna aren't that expensive! The Park Hyatt Vienna costs just $250 in Ultimate Rewards points or $269 for a Points + Cash redemption (plus a Diamond suite upgrade, naturally).

In fact what I'm likely to do is cancel my existing 2-night reservation at the Radisson Blu Style Hotel, Vienna, upgrade our stay to a premium award redemption at the Radisson Blu Carlton Hotel, and book all three nights in Vienna at the Park Hyatt.

On false economy

[editor's note: my worthless MacBook Pro has finally stopped working completely, so I'm using an aged clamshell laptop for my blogging this week. Grammar and punctuation will suffer, and pictures will be minimal/nonexistent.]

After dropping off my MacBook Pro at the Apple Store on Sunday, I started poking around the current batch of gadgets and saw the 2 terabyte Time Capsule, currently retailing for a mere $299 before taxes and portal cash back (if you signed up in time to double your Discover cash back, you can get 5% cash back now and another 5% cash back at the end of your doubled year).

My current backup solution is a $54.99, 500 gigabyte external USB hard drive, and it works fine, except for three problems:

1. I have to remember to plug it in;
2. I have to remember to plug it in;
3. and I have to remember to plug it in.

As long as I remember to plug it in, it backs up my hard drive. The longer I forget to plug it in, the more out of date the backup becomes, and the more data I potentially lose.

This got me thinking about the question of false economy, which happens to be very relevant to travel hacking, in several ways.

Thinking critically about false economy

It's easy — and dangerous — to fall into sloppy thinking about false economy, and the best defense is to carefully define our terms. For me, false economy doesn't mean "paying less for an inferior product." That's just economy — we expect things that cost less to be of lesser quality! For me, false economy means specifically saving money upfront in a way that ultimately ends up costing more money, by some order of magnitude, than the amount saved. Further, it helps if the larger, future costs are somehow foreseeable, but irrationally ignored for the sake of saving money upfront.

The best illustrations of my vision of false economy are when amateurs try to make do without the help of professionals. Regular economy is using masking tape to fix a plumbing problem. False economy is leaving town, the masking tape bursting, short-circuiting your refrigerator and causing a devastating fire (it happened to Edward Norton).

It's simply impossible to imagine saving enough money on plumbers in the short term to rationalize losing your home to fire in the longer term.

Think holistically to avoid false economy

There are two popular options college students use to save money when flying from South Central Wisconsin:

• a $46 roundtrip bus to General Mitchell International Airport in Milwaukee, which is served by Southwest Airlines.
• a $60 roundtrip bus to Chicago's Midway (served by Southwest) and O'Hare airports (served by Alaska), which occasionally have lower fares.

You can see the appeal of both options (especially if you're the parents paying to bring your kid home or, worse yet, send them to Cancun for spring break): if a Southwest ticket saves you $47, why not put your munchkin on the bus for an hour and make them fly out of Milwaukee? It's not like you're the one sitting on the bus.

When the travel hacker is the one traveling, the calculus suddenly changes dramatically:

• Flexpoint redemption bands means more expensive local flights may cost you the same number of Flexpoints as flights which require a bus ride;
• Discounted point redemptions mean even more expensive flights don't cost as much as they would when paying cash. For example, to justify paying $60 for a bus trip you'd have to save $75 in airfare if redeeming Ultimate Rewards points out of a Sapphire Preferred or Ink Plus Ultimate Rewards account (1.25 cents each), $85.80 when using "pay with points" in an American Express Business Platinum Membership Rewards account (1.43 cents each), or $96 when redeeming Citi ThankYou points from a ThankYou Prestige card on American Airlines (1.6 cents each).

As a mid-career white collar professional you might find these examples ridiculous: why would anyone take a bus instead of flying out of their local airport? The reason I raise them is that I want to take the idea of economy seriously, because spending tens or hundreds of dollars for "convenience" is really out of the question for a lot of people in this country.

And let me tell you: the busses to Milwaukee and Chicago are full, all day every day, with people doing their best to save a few dollars on airfare.

Avoiding false economy isn't an excuse to splurge

I think it was Matt from Saverocity who quipped on Twitter after reading yet another first class trip report that he couldn't justify paying $1,000 for an $80 bottle of champagne (well, he said "champers").

And that's the way I feel about a lot of so-called "aspirational" travel. It's not that there's anything wrong with getting a good night's sleep on a plane, or flying across the world to spend a week at the beach, it's that the marginal benefit of doing so over a far cheaper vacation (or many, many far cheaper vacations) isn't worth it to me personally.

And I think that's a real risk: once you recognize that false economy is a problem, there's a temptation to err in the opposite direction. If a $299 2-terabyte Apple Time Capsule is a good deal, well it's just $100 more for a 3-terabyte Time Capsule. That's just 33% more money for 50% more storage space (whether you need it or not)!

Yesterday's post on chasing Delta elite status illustrates the point nicely: booking a $350 first class ticket instead of a $250 economy class ticket with Flexpoints is a no-brainer: both tickets cost 20,000 Flexpoints, but one includes free checked bags, making elite status worthless.

But booking a $550 first class ticket instead of a $350 economy class ticket isn't a no-brainer: you're paying $100 (the cash value of 10,000 more Flexpoints) and saving just $50 in roundtrip checked bag fees. $50 in cash isn't a lot of money to pay for a roundtrip first class upgrade, but it's also not free.

You don't have to make rational decisions all the time

One of the advantages of paying such a small fraction of retail for our travel is that mistakes don't have catastrophic consequences. If you forget to book through a cash back portal, you might lose a 4% cash back payout on paid Hilton stays, but your reservation won't be canceled, you won't be arrested, you'll just pay slightly more than you could have if you'd remembered to click through.

But thinking through these questions in advance will help you develop the analytical tools you need to make better decisions, more often, than you would if you approached each decision from scratch each time you have to make a reservation.

I haven't bought a 2-terabyte Apple Time Capsule yet. But I'm thinking about it, and the reason I'm thinking about it is that a 2-terabyte Time Capsule doesn't have to save me very much time, stress, and money to be worth $299.