Redeem Wells Fargo "Go Far" rewards for Hyatt gift cards

/

Maybe you got in on the Hyatt Gold Passport Diamond status match in time. Maybe you didn't.

But if you have a Wells Fargo credit card that's earning 5 "Go Far" rewards points per dollar spent at gas stations, grocery stores, and pharmacies, you should seriously consider redeeming those points for 1.22 cents each by ordering Hyatt gift cards.

Hyatt gift cards are a strong competitor to the Chase Hyatt credit card

The Chase Hyatt credit card gives 2 elite-qualifying stay credits and 5 elite-qualifying night credits after spending $20,000 on the card in a calendar year, and another 3 stay credits and 5 night credits after spending $40,000, total, within the same calendar year.

The same spend manufactured on a 2% cash back card would yield $800, while Chase Ultimate Rewards points transferred to Hyatt come at a cost of 1 cent each (the cash value of the same Ultimate Rewards points redeemed for cash).

That means, as I explained on episode 26 of the Saverocity Observation Deck podcast, you're paying a minimum of $80 per stay for each of the 5 stays you earn manufacturing $40,000 in spend with the Chase Hyatt credit card.

But the same $400 in Wells Fargo "Go Far" rewards points (otherwise redeemable for cash) will purchase $487.80 in Hyatt stays in the US, Canada, or the Carribean (the regions where gift cards can be used).

In other words, your breakeven point is not $80 per paid stay, but rather $97.56 per paid stay — and that's ignoring the points you earn on paid stays, which aren't earned on the elite-qualifying stays awarded by the Chase Hyatt credit card.

Discounted gift cards provide real savings — don't discount them

If you're able to buy Hyatt gift cards at an 18% discount, then redeem them for paid stays which, in turn, earn 500 or 1,000 Hyatt Gold Passport points each, you should be properly comparing manufactured spend on a Chase Hyatt credit card to stays costing as much as $107 after taxes.

So while manufacturing spend on the Chase Hyatt credit card is an easy and convenient method for racking up additional elite-qualifying stays and nights, you may find that you're leaving money on the table by doing so.

Going by train

/

I've now travelled on a substantial minority of long-haul Amtrak routes, depending on your definition:

  • Empire Builder (entire route, both directions)
  • Coast Starlight (entire route, both directions)
  • Southwest Chief (Chicago to Los Angeles)
  • City of New Orleans (Chicago to New Orleans)
  • California Zephyr (Chicago to Emeryville)
  • Acela Express (Providence to New York City)
  • Northeast Regional (all over the place)

This doesn't make me anything close to an expert in Amtrak train travel, but it's given me a lot of experience. Here's what I've learned.

If you can't get to an Amtrak station, Amtrak will probably take you

I've written about this before in the context of Amtrak thruway bus cabotage, but the overall point is that Amtrak contracts with a wide range of local bus carriers in order to ferry people from cities and towns that aren't served by Amtrak to cities and towns that are serviced by Amtrak.

The one thing you need to know about Amtrak sleeping accommodations

There are three (primary) types of Amtrak sleeping accommodations: roomettes, bedrooms, and family bedrooms.

These are basically ordered by size, with roomettes being the smallest (a tiny room with two fold-down beds), bedrooms having some room to stretch, and family bedrooms being the largest, capable of accommodating up to 2 adults and 2 children.

That's all academic: the key thing to know is that only bedrooms (the middle category) have en suite toilets and showers.

Now, maybe that's a big deal for you or maybe it isn't. But either way, it's the primary difference between the room types (besides square footage).

If you choose a room type without en suite toilets and showers, you can use the toilets and showers downstairs in each sleeping car.

The food is pretty good, with limitations

As a sleeper car passenger on an Amtrak train, everyone in your compartment is entitled to breakfast, lunch, and dinner in the dining car.

These meals are pretty epic. You can order anything off each menu, and each menu has very elaborate offerings: omelettes, french toast, or pancakes for breakfast, burgers and sandwiches for lunch, and steaks, pasta, or specialty items for supper.

Of course, since you're confined to a train for anywhere from 24 to 70 hours, you should definitely not be eating that much food.

Did I mention dessert is served with both lunch and dinner?

Basically, your best move is to pick a few entrees you'd like to try over the course of a long-haul trip, and order one per day. Other than that, eat salad.

The views are completely unique

This is where you accuse me of burying the lede. Traveling by train gives you a view of the terrain of the United States that you literally can't get anywhere else.

These train routes are carved through landscapes that don't have any roads, sidewalks, or even hiking paths.

You will never see this view of the Colorado River anywhere except on an Amtrak train:

That's because there's a mountain on one side and train tracks on the other. If you're not on the train, you're out of luck.

Conclusion: go by train, while you can

Long-haul train routes in the United States are an endangered species. Some of them are subsidized by local governments seeking tourism revenue, some are subsidized by Congress, and others are subsidized by redirecting revenue from the few profitable routes, primarily on the coasts.

But that's a far cry from suggesting that such long-haul passenger train routes are "a waste." They're remarkable and unique ways to view parts of this remarkable country which are inaccessible by any other means of transportation.

Anatomy of an Award Trip: Spring Break in San Francisco

/

If you follow me on Twitter (as you should!) you know I spent last week in San Francisco. It was only upon returning that I realized I hadn't posted an anatomy of the award trip. Better late then never!

Getting there: Amtrak's California Zephyr

This was my last long-haul Amtrak sleeper cabin redemption before the December 8, 2015, revenue-based Amtrak Guest Rewards devaluation. I transferred 40,000 Chase Ultimate Rewards points to Amtrak Guest Rewards points for a 2-zone bedroom reservation between Chicago and San Francisco on the California Zephyr.

Total cost: 40,000 Amtrak Guest Rewards points, transferred from Ultimate Rewards. Total value: $1,246. Value per point: 3.12 cents per Ultimate Rewards point.

Staying there: Hyatt Fisherman's Wharf

As a newly minted Hyatt Diamond, I was eager to see what all the fuss was about and booked a 5-night Points + Cash reservation at the Hyatt Fisherman's Wharf, and applied one of my 2015 Suite Upgrade Awards.

Total cost: 37,500 Hyatt Gold Passport points and $582.25. Total value: $1,769.96. Value per point: 3.17 cents per Ultimate Rewards point.

I then earned 3,250 of those points back, bringing my final value per point to 3.47 cents per Ultimate Rewards point. Note that this value is based on an ordinary room reservation, not a suite reservation, since I could have applied a Suite Upgrade Award to either type of reservation.

Getting back: Delta first class tickets

To get back, I employed a strategy I use increasingly often: I booked my partner on an award ticket and myself on a paid ticket using a Delta voluntary denied boarding voucher. My partner doesn't play the game at all (besides traveling with me) so I don't make any attempt to get her elite status or earn bonus miles in her accounts.

Total cost: 37,500 Delta SkyMiles and $5.60, plus $729.10 in voluntary denied boarding compensation. Total value: $1,458.20. Value per point: 1.93 cents per SkyMile.

Conclusion

From my point of view, this award trip was quite close to ideal: I redeemed points I earned extremely cheaply for relatively expensive reservations.

In the case of Ultimate Rewards points redeemed at 3 cents or more per point, I earned close to 15% back on spend I manufactured with Ultimate Rewards-earning credit cards in their 5-points-per-dollar bonus categories.

In the case of Delta SkyMiles earned at 1.4 SkyMiles per dollar spent with my American Express Delta SkyMiles Platinum credit card, I earned roughly 2.7% back when redeeming those miles for my partner's first class ticket, which is quite strong for unbonused manufactured spend.

And of course when redeeming Delta voluntary denied boarding vouchers for my own travel, I came out ahead simply by being able to redeem it at face value.

Tune in tomorrow for some reflections on the train ride, hotel stay, and my impressions of a 5-day visit to the bay area!

You should always book one-way tickets, except when you shouldn't

/

Not just among travel hackers, but also in the civilian population, the conventional wisdom for a long time has been that it's usually better to make roundtrip airline reservations than book one-way tickets. There are a few reasons usually cited for this:

  • In the case of a trip interruption or cancellation, you'll only pay change fees once on a roundtrip ticket booked on a single reservation, while you'd have to pay the corresponding fee in each direction if the tickets are booked separately.
  • Since "only business travelers book one-way tickets," airlines take advantage of the opportunity for price discrimination to charge more for one-way tickets than roundtrip reservations. They may charge less for tickets with a Saturday night stay, a discount you can only secure if you book a roundtrip ticket.

I book virtually all of my airline reservations as one-way tickets these days, and thought it would be worth explaining why.

Some airlines compose all reservations from one-way segments

Alaska Airlines and Southwest Airlines treat all reservations as the combination of two or more one-way tickets. So you'll never save any money booking a roundtrip ticket on those airlines, rather than two one-ways.

In an extreme case, if you're tracking the price of your Southwest Airlines reservation in order to rebook at a lower fare, you might miss the opportunity if your outbound segment goes down in price and your return segment goes up in price by the same amount or more.

Keeping your reservations separate will make sure you capture any downward price difference in either direction.

Some airlines don't let you change your frequent flyer information after travel has commenced

If you want to credit one segment of a Delta-operated itinerary to SkyMiles and another to Alaska Mileage Plan, you're out of luck: once travel has commenced, you can't change the frequent flyer account linked to a Delta-operated reservation.

If you make two reservations instead, you can easily credit one of them to one airline's frequent flyer program and another to a second program.

Booking one-way tickets allows you to capture low-level redemptions, where available

Consider a $600 ticket, the individual components of which price at $350 each. While the roundtrip ticket is $100 cheaper than two paid tickets, if low-level award space is available on one segment, but not the other, you can buy one $350 paid ticket and redeem 12,500 miles, getting 2 cents per redeemed mile.

And of course, you can redeem 20,000 US Bank Flexpoints for the $350 ticket, which brings me to...

Price compression means more expensive tickets don't necessarily cost you any more

In the case above, the $600 roundtrip ticket (well, assuming it's actually $600.01) will cost 40,000 US Bank Flexpoints. But two $350 one-way tickets will also cost 40,000 Flexpoints! Furthermore, booking the tickets separately may reveal that a first class ticket in one or both directions costs only marginally more, allowing you to book yourself in greater comfort (and in a higher-earning fare class) without redeeming any additional miles or points. That's the phenomenon I refer to as "price compression."

When you should definitely consider booking roundtrip reservations

There are a few key exceptions to my rule of thumb that most trips should be booked as a series of one-way reservations:

  • Complicated reservations. If you're booking multi-stop itineraries in one or both directions, you want to be accommodated if you miss a connection or a flight is cancelled. If your airline can't see your onward connections in their system, they probably won't accommodate you.
  • If you're booking a revenue ticket in either direction of an international itinerary. With all of its marvelous pricing technology, the airline industry often charges less (sometimes much less!) for roundtrip tickets to and from Europe than for one-way reservations. So make sure you're actually saving money before booking one direction with cash and the other direction with miles and points.
  • If you are buying travel insurance (and actually might use it). If you buy two one-way tickets, and your outbound trip suffers an event covered by your trip insurance, your return flight may not be covered. In any case, it means paying two trip insurance premiums for a single trip and a single covered event.

Conclusion

There are obviously a lot of moving pieces here, but the key take-away is to check the award and revenue pricing for all flight reservations as both one-ways and roundtrips. You may end up saving a lot of whichever currency you end up deciding to use.

Basis, hoarding, and devaluation

/

Last week a reader wrote in to suggest that I address the topic of saving up miles and points for emergencies, which gave me an excuse to think about two slightly different but related topics. The first is the question of points devaluation, either marginal like the upcoming American AAdvantage devaluation or radical like Southwest's move from fixed-value to revenue-based redemptions. The second is the question of loss of ability to manufacture large quantities of miles and points cheaply, which we had a laugh about on Twitter over the weekend.

Return on investment depends on both basis and sale price

Last month Matt at Saverocity gestured at taking the idea of "basis" from the field of finance and applying it to travel hacking.

If you buy a share of stock for $1, then however much or wildly its price swings your basis in the stock remains the same: the amount you paid for it. This matters because if you buy in at $1 and the price rises to $100, you've made a 9900% return on your original investment, while if you buy in at $50 then at the same sale price, $100, you've only made a 100% return on your investment.

Devaluations are gradual and predictable

For all the wailing and gnashing of teeth whenever an airline or hotel devalues its miles, that process is relatively gradual and relatively predictable.

After all these years, despite everything that's happened in the airline loyalty industry, the 25,000 domestic saver award ticket still exists.

It's absolutely correct to say that award redemptions for international premium cabins have gone up in price by 100% or more over the last decade, and that the airlines, particularly United and American, have imposed additional "stealth" devaluations by severely limiting saver award space, but that's a years-long process that we've become more or less accustomed to.

Increases in basis are sudden and unexpected

Let me tell you a story about basis.

It used to be possible to buy $60,000 worth of PIN-enabled debit cards at a single CVS store location in a single day. You might use a 5% cash back card like the "old" Blue Cash. Or you might use a Hilton HHonors Surpass American Express and earn 6 HHonors points per dollar (drug stores used to be a bonused earning category, since replaced with restaurants).

Then CVS imposed a $5,000 daily limit on the purchase of prepaid cards. Suddenly, the same $60,000 in monthly spend took 12 trips to the drug store. Your basis, in the form of time spent traveling to the drug store, went up 1200% in the blink of an eye.

Today, CVS imposes a $2,000 daily limit, a further 2500% increase in your time basis to manufacture the same $60,000 per month in spend, which now takes 30 trips to the drug store.

Now, time is not the only basis you have in your miles and points. Your cash basis in the same $60,000 in spend hasn't changed, since CVS's activation fees haven't changed. But a 3000% increase in your time basis is a much more serious hit to your return on investment than a 50% devaluation of the value of the miles and points you earn.

When safe returns decrease, investors reach for yield

In some ways this is a good, natural, and clarifying process. When it becomes significantly more difficult to manufacture spend, people manufacture less spend, but better spend. It really may have made sense to manufacture spend with a 2% cash back card when all it took was an online order to the US Mint and a trip to the bank with a trunk full of dollar coins. If limited manufactured spend opportunities is what it takes for travel hackers to manufacture less spend on more lucrative cards, that's generally a good thing.

In other ways, of course, this increases the threat to the remaining methods of manufacturing and, especially, liquidating spend. If previously the diversity of techniques and opportunities kept any given opportunity safe, then fewer opportunities mean a higher concentration of people using any given tool. As those of us shut down by Bluebird and Serve know, increased concentration in a technique makes our corporate benefactors more likely to close down the opportunity and force us into even more expensive avenues.

Earn as many of the most valuable points you can, but don't hoard

All of this brings me back to my reader's question about hoarding miles and points for a rainy day, and my position on hoarding hasn't changed in the slightest since I wrote about it last October.

Hoarding can't and doesn't mean "earning more miles and points than you redeem." Everyone should be earning as many of the most valuable miles and points that they can, since we don't know when the next sudden increase in purchase price, our basis, will come along.

I earn cash back when cash back is the most valuable currency for me to earn, and I earn miles and points when they're the most valuable currency to earn. I basically don't factor future devaluations into my earning decisions, for all the reasons I explained above.

But if hoarding means anything, it must mean paying cash today, instead of points, in order to save your miles and points for a speculative, future higher value redemption. And I never hoard.

Like anyone, I'll maximize the value of my cash and points by booking expensive reservations with points and cheap ones with cash or, more usually, fixed-value rewards currencies. But given a choice between an average revenue rate and average points rate, I'll redeem the points every single time.

A belated 2015 end-of-year accounting

/

For the last two years, I've shared an accounting of my year in earning and burning miles and points (2013 and 2014). A reader recently reached out and asked whether I would do something similar for 2015.

The more volume I've pushed through my credit cards and loyalty accounts, the more difficult it's become to track the precise number of miles and points I earn each year. This isn't because of a lack of attention to detail; I actually maintain an unnecessarily-meticulous record of all the fees I incur while manufacturing spend.

The problem is simply that loyalty programs make it terribly obnoxious to track this kind of activity, so unless you track it throughout the year, you're left flailing at the end of the year to figure out the final score.

For example, if you have an American Airlines AAdvantage or IHG co-branded credit card, every time you redeem miles or points you get a 10% rebate. Barclaycard Arrival+ cardholders get a 5% rebate on all their redeemed miles. Should those points be reported as "earned," or deducted from "redeemed" miles?

Likewise, if I redeem Ultimate Rewards points by transferring them to United or Hyatt, and then redeem those United and Hyatt points for travel, where are the appropriate columns to debit and credit the transactions?

Nonetheless, as your humble servant, I did go through all the accounts I've previously reported on and calculated the total number of points I redeemed in 2015. So without further ado, here are my total redeemed mile and point totals for calendar year 2015:

As you can see, my total redeemed balances come to 1,678,000 miles and points. This is more or less meaningless for the reasons I explained above (Hyatt, United, and British Airways redemptions are counted twice, both above and below the central line), but hopefully it gives the curious an idea of the rewards currencies I choose to focus on.

Redeeming rump point balances

/

If having too many points in a single program is one kind of problem, both because of the increased exposure to devaluations and the fact that the least valuable point is the one that is never redeemed, then having just a few points in a program is a slightly different kind of problem.

The remaining points left in an account, whether "orphaned" there when you moved your earning activity to another program or the "rump" points left after a big redemption, can be difficult to redeem for anything: too few points for a big, valuable redemption and too many points to simply redeem for magazines.

Since I redeem my miles and points as aggressively as possible, I'm often faced with this problem of rump points. I thought it might be useful to go through my balances and see what I can get with my current account balances, without earning any additional points.

Club Carlson: 13,248 points

After my windfall back in January, I rebooked a couple of stays and ended up with a rump balance of just over 13,000 Gold Points. This is enough for a single night at a Category 1 property.

Club Carlson's Category 1 offers very slim pickings. The Park Inn by Radisson Puerto Varas, in Chile, looks adorable, and there are a few properties in Eastern Europe that seem fine (although I'm not sure the Park Inn Danube, Bratislava, will still be Category 1 after they finish their renovations on September 1, 2016).

There are 3 Radisson Blu properties on the list, in Egypt, Turkey, and India.

But since none of those options work for me, I'll likely redeem my remaining Club Carlson points for airline miles. As you'd expect, the transfer ratio is terrible, with 2,000 Gold Points transferring to 200 airline miles with their partners. Still, it's clear that I'm much more likely to redeem 1,200 airline miles than 13,000 Gold Points.

IHG Rewards Club: 55,380 points

"FQF," I imagine you asking, "how can you call 55,000 points a rump balance? That sounds like a ton of points!"

Well, it's a rump balance because IHG is a terrible program. 55,000 points isn't enough for a single night at one of their top-tier properties. If I were skipping around the world living in PointBreaks properties it would be enough for 11 nights at one of those, but I already pay rent on a perfectly nice apartment, so I'm not keen on moving to Browning, MT, for 11 days.

Having said all that, IHG's huge footprint makes it easy to find properties to fill in the little gaps in an itinerary. I currently have a one-night stay booked at the Grand Hyatt New York for $202.27 (as part of my tentative plan to requalify for Hyatt Gold Passport Diamond status). Instead, I'll buy 5,000 IHG Rewards Club points for $40 and stay at the InterContinental New York Times Square, getting 0.3 cents per point, which is slightly below the Hotel Hustle median value for IHG Rewards Club points.

American Airlines AAdvantage: 13,917 miles

Despite having had a Citi / AAdvantage World Elite MasterCard for several years (since they keep waiving the annual fee), I only recently booked my first reduced mileage award.

This is how reduced mileage awards work: if you're redeeming miles for a one-way or roundtrip itinerary within the contiguous United States, and your origin or destination is on the list of eligible "destinations," you receive a 2,500- or 3,750-mile discount on the miles required in each direction. The discount is applied immediately over the phone, which is the only way to book these awards, and it can't be combined with the new short haul awards going into effect March 22, 2016, although American promises that "New reduced mileage award levels will be introduced for these shorter flights on April 1st."

All of this is just to say that when applying the 3,750-mile discount I'm eligible for, one-way awards to and from eligible cities cost just 8,750 miles. Moreover, since American's co-branded credit cards also offer a 10% mileage rebate on all redemptions (up to 10,000 rebated miles per year), that rebate immediately brings the total cost of such flights down to 7,875 in each direction in economy (19,125 in first class).

One interesting possibility with these awards is to use them for hidden city ticketing. Since every American Airlines itinerary from my home airport requires a connection in Charlotte, Chicago, or Dallas, I could theoretically use a reduced mileage award to fly there and simply exit the airport or continue on to a different destination on a different carrier.

In any case, I'll likely kill two birds with one stone and transfer 12,000 Club Carlson Gold Points to AAdvantage, leaving me just 633 AAdvantage miles short of a roundtrip reduced mileage award redemption (n.b. actually slightly more than that since the 10% discount is applied only after booking, so I'll actually need 1,508 AAdvantage miles to make the second one-way redemption. The proof of this is left as an exercise for the reader).

How much do you charge friends and family for travel?

/

Travel hacking is a specialized combination of knowledge, skills, and opportunities, plus of course making the time to take advantage of them. For those willing to invest in this world, the payoff is tremendous: the ability to pay for travel at a steep discount, whether you're buying luxury accommodations for the price of a Motel 6, or getting a Motel 6 for the price of a youth hostel.

Once you've invested the time and attention to learning those skills, it's natural to want to share the rewards with friends and family who, at least in my case, treat travel hacking as a curious combination of magic and fraud.

While I'm always eager to help out, being both a businessman and a poor person means I like to look for mutually beneficial arrangements when booking travel for my loved ones. In that spirit I think there are basically three models one can use when trying to help people save money on travel.

Offer a fixed discount off retail

This strategy makes the most sense for "arm's length" transactions. If you have more miles and points than you have near-term plans for, you can offer to book travel for friends and family at a fixed discount off the price they're already planning to pay.

If someone wants to book a $600 domestic flight, and you discover there's low-level award availability (or, better yet, discounted award availability like that offered to Citi AAdvantage credit cardholders), you can offer to book the flights for a mere $450. This is a classic win-win situation: the traveler gets a 75% discount off retail, and you get 1.8 cents or more per mile in cash — a pretty good redemption!

The drawback of this method is that there are situations where it simply doesn't apply: if a flight is cheap enough, or the mileage cost is high enough, there may simply not be a middle ground in which the booker and traveler can meet to mutual benefit.

Charge the opportunity cost of earning (or redeeming for cash) your points

This is the strategy I usually follow when offering to book travel for my close friends and family. If a hotel room costs 40,000 HHonors points, I'll offer to book it for $141, since that's the amount of cash back I could have earned manufacturing the same $6,667 on a 2.105% cash back card. In other words, I want to be "made whole," but I'm not interested in extracting any profit out of the transaction. If that's a discount off retail they'll usually be interested, and if not, there's no harm done.

But there are two pitfalls here. The first is figuring out what your actual opportunity cost is. In the case of hotel points or airline miles earned with a credit card (at the expense of cash back), the calculation is simple, as shown above. But if you're redeeming Ultimate Rewards points for a friend's Hyatt stay, the relevant cost isn't how much cash you could have earned instead of earning Ultimate Rewards points, it's how much the Ultimate Rewards points are worth if redeemed for cash. The same is true of any rewards currency that can be directly redeemed for cash, like US Bank Flexpoints.

The second wrinkle is valuing instruments that are, due to price compression, worth manifestly less than their face value to the travel hacker. For example, a $400 American Airlines voluntary denied boarding voucher is worth much less than $400 to me, since I can redeem 20,000 US Bank Flexpoints, worth $200 if redeemed for cash, for the same flight (in reality it's not quite that bad since the voucher has the added flexibility of being combinable with cash for flights at the bottom of a Flexperks redemption band).

When deciding the opportunity cost of something like that, you could either think about the actual delay that earned you the voucher in the first place (how much is 5 hours in a Chicago airport worth? Did you have to buy lunch?), or simply assign it the value of the points you would use to book a flight of the same value. In the above example, that could be the $200 cash value of 20,000 Flexpoints.

Travel is free (for other people)

The third option, of course, is to just give travel away! What are you, some kind of cheapskate?

For children, grandchildren, nieces, nephews, parents, grandparents, and anyone you're about to propose to, the best option is not to charge them anything for their travel. Your miles and points didn't cost you much, you have too many of them, and it'll mean the world to them to get to see the world.

This is the strategy I use when booking vacations for my partner and I, and it's fun. I heartily recommend occasionally splurging on your loved ones, the operative word being "occasionally."

I don't mean to get all philosophical this close to the end of the post, but people basically don't value stuff they get for free. Or, to put a slightly finer point on it, people quickly get used to getting stuff for free and quickly come to accept it as the natural order of things, rather than a gift or treat for a special occasion.

That's why I think for kids or siblings it's probably better in the long run to offer a big discount off retail rather than spread free trips around like gelt at Hanukkah.

Conclusion

So, what did I miss? Do you charge your loved ones for "free" travel, and if so, how much?

What revealed preferences have taught me about valuing miles and points

/

One fascination of the miles and points community is "valuing" their loyalty currencies. This should be, in principle, one of the most important aspects of an earning strategy: earn more valuable points before less valuable points is a mantra as obvious as it is useless.

But determining the value of points is vigorously disputed terrain.

Hotel Hustle can tell you the value other people are getting for their hotel points

I love Hotel Hustle, and write about it relatively often. It has two relevant features here: you can plug in your own points valuation and search by "Hustle Hotness:" what percentage of your assigned value you're getting at each property in your search destination.

But additionally, Hotel Hustle will show you the range of values other people using Hotel Hustle have found on their own, real-world searches.

For these purposes I've always like the median value, which has 50% of search results giving more value, and 50% of searches giving less value. So across all the tabulated Hotel Hustle search results, you can see that Hilton HHonors points are worth a median of 0.44 cents each.

That doesn't mean you'll get 0.44 cents per point, but it's a benchmark you can use to evaluate your earning and burning decisions, and it's based on real-world award search results.

Affiliate bloggers make up values depending on which way the wind is blowing

Bankrate.com employee Brian Kelly will tell you each month what cards have the biggest affiliate payouts.

Likewise Thought Leader from Behind Gary Leff will periodically post his updated points valuations.

And of course Rich Weirdo Ben Schlappig has a whole page devoted to valuing miles and points.

Here are the values revealed preferences show for the miles and points I earn

The concept of "revealed preferences" is a powerful one in behavioral economics. Rather than attempting to establish the value of goods in the abstract, or by measuring quanta of pleasure, revealed preferences allow you to determine a good's value to the consumer by the price they're actually willing to pay for it. Revolutionary, right?

So here are the values I actually put on my miles and points, determined strictly by what I do, in fact, pay for them each month:

  • 1.4 SkyMiles are worth about 2 cents. When buying cheap, PIN-enabled prepaid debit cards at unbonused merchants, I split my purchases between my American Express Delta SkyMiles Platinum Business card and my 2% and 2.105% cash back cards. My indifference between earning 1.4 SkyMiles and 2% cash back means I value SkyMiles at about 1.43 cents each.
  • 6 Hilton HHonors points are worth up to 4 cents in airfare. I only have a single local grocery store that sells PIN-enabled prepaid debit cards, and I can choose between using my American Express Hilton HHonors Surpass card or my US Bank Flexperks Travel Rewards card. I use my Surpass card, valuing each HHonors point at up to 0.67 cents in paid airfare.
  • 2 Ultimate Rewards points are worth slightly less than up to 4 cents in airfare. As above, I have a single local merchant that codes as a gas station and sells PIN-enabled prepaid debit cards. I could use either my Chase Ink Plus or my US Bank Flexperks Travel Rewards card for purchases there, but lean towards the Flexperks card, valuing an Ultimate Rewards point at slightly less than up to 2 cents in paid airfare.

Conclusion: my values aren't yours

My situation is unique, as is yours. I travel all the time, and am dedicated to keeping my rewards balances as low as possible, meaning I'm not stockpiling millions of any one currency. Instead, I'm redeeming miles and points roughly as quickly as I redeem them, giving me lots of "gut-check" opportunities to see whether I'm getting enough value from my rewards currencies to justify earning more of them.

For example, in January I had decided to cancel my American Express Delta SkyMiles Business Platinum card, when a health emergency in the family caused me to redeem most of my SkyMiles balance at a value of over 5 cents per SkyMile. With an empty SkyMiles account, and the possibility of future urgent travel, I decided it made more sense to keep the card and pay 1.43 cents per SkyMile again this year.

Likewise, just this week I redeemed 20,000 US Bank Flexpoints for a first class flight that otherwise would have cost $343. Alternatively, I could have redeemed 27,440 Ultimate Rewards points (at 1.25 cents each), making me feel fantastic about earning 2 Flexpoints per dollar instead of 2 Ultimate Rewards points per dollar at my local gas station.