Is it time to reconsider Hilton HHonors?

[update 2/18/14: I updated the charts below to show the effect of the depreciating 5th night free for stays of 6 – 10 nights in length.]

I applied for the no-annual-fee American Express Hilton HHonors card in January of last year, in order to take advantage of its then-lucrative 6 HHonors points per dollar spent at drug stores. Of course that was rapidly followed by both the 2013 Hilton devaluation and an end to bonus points at drug stores in May, 2013.

Since my experiment buying PayPal My Cash cards for bonus points at 7-11 ended in failure, I shelved my HHonors card except for periodically taking advantage of promotions like Small Business Saturday and Amex Sync offers.

Now that I have another local gas station willing to play nice, I need to decide whether it's worth getting the card back out and potentially even upgrading to a Surpass card that would earn 6, instead of 5, HHonors points per dollar there.

Back in December I tried out a new approach to valuing manufactured spend, by calculating the value you would need to get from a night's stay to make it worth manufacturing spend on a chain's co-branded credit card, rather than a 2.22% cash back Barclaycard Arrival. The advantage of this approach is that it gives you a straightforward calculus (do I value this hotel night at more or less than the break-even point?), without needing to take into account the actual cost of an identical, paid hotel stay.

Here's that same analysis applied to the American Express Hilton HHonors Surpass card, assuming that your spend is manufactured exclusively at merchants that give 6 HHonors points per dollar.

Note two things about these charts: first, I've assumed that you'll be redeeming your HHonors points during the "high" period at Category 4 – 10 properties. If you redeem at the lower end of the award bands, the points required and consequent required value per night will be lower. Second, I haven't taken into account the additional HHonors points you would earn on paid stays. That's a real shortcoming, but I can't think of an elegant way to capture it. You should feel free to adjust these rates based on your HHonors earning rate on paid stays.

Finally, remember that you receive HHonors Diamond elite status in any calendar year you spend $40,000 or more on the Surpass card, and you keep that status through the following membership year (i.e. in March 2 years in the future).

Here's are the points and bonused spend required for 1 and 5 night stays at each category of Hilton property:

And here's the value you'd need to get per night in order to justify manufacturing spend on the American Express Hilton HHonors Surpass card:

So is it worth manufacturing spend on the Surpass card? The sweet spot here appears to be category 5-6 properties, where you can get a night for less than $200, including tax, and possibly category 7 properties on stays which are multiples of exactly 5 nights.

Of course if you're intent on visiting a resort property like the Conrad Maldives Rangali Island, where your only options are to pay a cash rate or redeem points, you'll save easily $1,000 per night on a 5 night stay by redeeming manufactured HHonors points instead.