If you're already buying Hilton points for 0.5 cents each, why not buy in bulk?

I've never successfully bought one of the US Travel Association's "Daily Getaways," but when they're released I always poke my head over to see if anything jumps out at me as a fantastic deal. As usual, there's nothing too special, but the April 16 offer did catch my attention: buying up to 250,000 Hilton Honors points for 0.5 cents each.

Now, like all Daily Getaways, this is not, on its face, a very good deal, since 0.5 cents each is roughly what Hilton Honors points are worth (unless you have a particularly high-value redemption planned, and are certain to be able to find award availability).

However, I'm already buying Hilton Honors points for 0.5 cents each when I use my Ascend American Express card at grocery stores instead of my US Bank Flexperks Travel Rewards card. The latter earns 2 Flexpoints per dollar spent, worth 3% cash back towards travel redemptions, while the former earns 6 Hilton Honors points per dollar: 0.5 cents per Hilton Honors point.

why not buy in bulk?

The reason I won't be going all-in on this offer is that one of the benefits of earning points through manufactured spend over time is that you can calibrate your earning to your actual travel needs. While I "spend" $1,250 in foregone Flexpoint value whenever I earn 250,000 Hilton Honors points, I don't do so all at once, and if I suddenly find myself in more need of airfare than hotel nights, or vice versa, I can swing the dial in the needed direction.

Not a terrible way to meet minimum spend requirements

The best argument for buying Hilton Honors points in bulk at 0.5 cents each is simply as a form of manufactured spend. If you believe, as I think it's not unreasonable to believe, that Hilton Honors points are actually worth 0.5 cents each when redeemed for hotel stays, then buying them up front is simply a way of shifting forward in time your future hotel spend.

That's precisely what we do when we manufacture spend: we incur known, fixed costs in the present with sufficient confidence that the rewards we earn will be redeemed for enough value to justify the upfront payment. Normally you'd want to do that with a margin of safety: we don't normally pay 1 cent in advance for 1 cent in travel, since if all you're getting is 1 cent in travel, you may as well pay later and hang onto your money for now.

But if you have a minimum spending requirement to meet, and especially if you have a minimum spending requirement on an American Express card, where the most common manufactured spend techniques have attracted scrutiny and can cause signup bonuses to be denied, then an opportunity to incur $1,250 in expenses for $1,250 in Hilton Honors points may be worthwhile even if you don't have plans to redeem the points for outsized value, due the potential value of the signup or high spend bonus the purchase may trigger.