Who is the Inspirato Pass ripping off (and who is rich or dumb enough to find out?)

Every 21st century tech scam involves ripping off some combination of three groups of people: customers, service providers, and investors. If you can exploit regulatory loopholes it’s icing on the cake.

Customers

You might expect customers to be the biggest victims of tech scams, but in my experience that’s relatively rare, simply because customers have the least money of the three groups, and tend to guard it best. Customers are most vulnerable when it comes to subscription services, but in those cases the scam is fairly transparent, or even harmless: gyms sell more memberships than they have equipment with the understanding that most members won’t show up very often, and dedicated athletes simply plan their workouts during slower periods.

Another frequent occurrence is customers victimized not by the platform, but by the service provider. A wonderful Vice article from last October described how scammers used AirBNB to advertise properties they would then substitute for uninhabitable units when guests arrived. AirBNB’s technology and policies made the scam possible, but the company itself wasn’t actively participating in it.

But ultimately, customers are not often the victims of tech scams. Uber has never and will never turn a profit, but their customers really do receive the transportation they pay for. MoviePass never stood a chance, but their customers really did get to see movies.

Service Providers

Service providers often end up being the victims of tech scams, especially in fragmented and competitive markets. Restaurants, particularly during the pandemic, may feel they need to participate in delivery services in order to stay in business, and are thus willing to sign over a huge share of their revenue over to platforms like DoorDash and Grubhub.

Contrast that with MoviePass: logically, movie theater seats, like airline seats, are the ultimate “expiring” good: the second the movie starts or the plane takes off, empty seats lose their entire value. In the case of aircraft, the mere presence of the seat adds to the flight’s fuel expense with no off-setting revenue. But movie theaters, unlike restaurants, operate in a super-consolidated market, with even very large cities having just 4-5 companies operating all or almost all of their movie theaters. That gave AMC, Regal, Loews, and Carmike leverage over MoviePass: if MoviePass wanted customers, it had to pay the theaters whatever they demanded, and what they demanded was full price.

Investors

In most cases, it’s obvious who’s getting ripped off by tech scams: it’s the investors. Ride-share services like Lyft and Uber cannot be operated profitably, but they are being operated: customers get the rides they order, and drivers are paid to provide them. The difference between the price riders pay and the amount it costs to operate the service comes from the only place it can: investors. This is good and right, since investors also have the most money to lose of the three groups of potential victims.

Of course, these three models can mix in different amounts. Customers who paid up front for year-long MoviePass subscriptions were certainly victims of the company’s insolvency right alongside the company’s investors, and even movie theaters that had adjusted their expectations based on the surge in MoviePass ticket sales had to adjust them back down after the sales vanished overnight.

How Inspirato is supposed to work

That’s the framework I brought while reading yesterday’s Miles to Memories post about the Inspirato Pass. For a $2,500 initiation fee and $2,500 per month, you get what works out to about 14 days per month of hotel stays, with “no nightly rates, taxes, or fees.” The mechanics are a bit complicated, and completely opaque unless you have a membership, but it seems that each Inspirato Pass allows you to make one 7-day reservation at a time, and on the day you check out, you are allowed to make another reservation at a minimum of 7 days out. That means 14 nights are included for every 28 days, or roughly 182 nights per year. Including the initiation fee, maximizing the pass during the first year works out to roughly $178 per night ($164 per night for future years).

Hilariously, Inspirato explicitly says you are allowed to have more than one Inspirato Pass, which would allow for back-to-back 7-night bookings: “If you are interested in multiple reservations for Inspirato Pass, you can simply purchase another Pass."

Before we get too off-track, let’s be clear: at face value, this is a pretty good deal, if it works even close to how it’s advertised. If you’re the kind of person who would pay $6796 for a 7-night stay at The Westin Snowmass Resort from Christmas through New Years, then paying $2,500 for the same stay is a good deal. Paying $1,250 for the same stay is an even better deal, which is where you’d end up if you booked two week-long stays the same month, 7 days apart.

How does the Inspirato Pass really work?

Inspirato does have a booking engine that appears to reflect availability in real time, so I ran two simple tests: a 7-night reservation in the United States beginning two days out (the minimum booking window) and one beginning 7 days out (the minimum booking window after a completed stay). The two-day booking window was pretty grim, with only 4 properties available for 7-night stays, in Savannah, Portland, Baltimore, and San Francisco:

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To save you the trouble, here’s the breakdown of paid rates at these hotels for these dates:

• Hyatt Regency Savannah: $844.30

• Portland Marriott Downtown Waterfront: $1,023.97

• Baltimore Marriott Waterfront: $732.03

• InterContinental Mark Hopkins San Francisco: $1,156.05

In other words, at none of these properties would you be better off paying $1,250 for a 7-night stay rather than the rate publicly available to anyone with a web browser.

The 7-day advance booking window is at least slightly more interesting, with options in Las Vegas, Boston, Colorado, and Texas. The Vdara in Las Vegas cracked the $1,250 barrier at $1,749.50, but that difference depends largely on whether the Inspirato’s “no nightly rates, taxes, or fees” claim includes resort fees, which make up a whopping $357.15 of the stay’s cost.

Is the Inspirato Pass a gym membership or a MoviePass?

This is the question I keep returning to. The logic of 21st century tech scams is always the same: [W capital asset] is unused [X percent of the time], why not charge [Y percent discount] or [Z subscription fee] to people who have have more time than money to maximize the usage of the fixed capital investment?

Like a very expensive gym membership, obviously Inspirato is capable of being profitable: any business that charges customers $30,000 annually is capable of being profitable! Since Pass members can only make one reservation at a time, surely around holidays some customers will feel the impulse to “lock in” their reservation in a single high-value reservation, even if that means paying multiple months of membership fees for a single week-long reservation a month or two in the future.

Like MoviePass, Inspirato doesn’t seem to have worked out any particular bargains with any of the hotels on their site. Their availability roughly matches the publicly available rooms. That inclines me to think they’re operating like a MoviePass, paying full freight (or perhaps slightly discounted corporate rates) for rooms, and using their inactive members’ money to pay for their active members’ rooms.

Conclusion

I don’t have any insight into Inspirato’s business model or balance sheet. But my very strong hunch is that we will see the same “observer effect” as we saw with MoviePass. As long as the company flew under the radar, they were able to finance the difference between the membership fees they collected and the ticket prices they paid. As soon as it became a nationwide phenomenon, their ticket purchases swamped their revenue and the company collapsed.

Inspirato has a built-in bulwark MoviePass didn’t have: they charge $30,000 per year! And maybe that incredible price point will discourage enough people to keep the platform viable. But, in my experience, rich people are even more meticulous about maximizing the value they get from every service they subscribe to, and I can’t imagine the Inspirato Pass will be any exception.

As long as the Inspirato Pass remains an affectation for rich weirdos, it might survive, and there’s no reason not to look into the value they’re offering for close-in trips. Just keep in mind, the second people start hammering it as hard as they can, the booking restrictions, “abuse” allegations, and insolvency are likely to follow. It’s a movie we’ve seen so many times we can recite the lines by heart.