Breaking: Hotel IT is not very good

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One reason I love meeting travel hackers is that every one has a unique "origin story" for how they became interested in the game in the first place. For example, I accidentally earned elite status with Delta one year, and in the course of searching out the benefits of my Silver Medallion status began to learn about and get involved in the community, as well.

Often an initiation into travel hacking comes with the discovery of a new trick. A friend discovered that his United global upgrade certificates weren't actually disappearing from his account when he redeemed them. He was sure no one else on Earth could possibly know about this bug (I believe it was actually quite widely known among travel hackers who fly United).

Hotel loyalty programs have pretty bad IT

In many ways this is understandable: Hilton HHonors has to design systems that allow both the Hilton Garden Inn DFW Airport South and Conrad Maldives Rangali Island to interact with Hilton's sprawling reservation system — and Hilton doesn't even own most of the properties using their software!

Sometimes bad IT just makes interacting with the chain more of a nuisance — IHG Rewards turns something as simple as signing up for a promotion into a Herculean achievement, and Hyatt doesn't allow award stays to be changed or canceled online.

But at other times, bad hotel loyalty software design can be turned to your advantage. Here are a few questions you might ask as you make your way through the world of hotel loyalty programs. 

How do hotels batch nights into stays?

Every hotel loyalty program I'm aware of "batches" consecutive nights at the same property into a single stay for the purposes of earning elite status and qualifying for promotions. For example, pre-devaluation a single Club Carlson credit cardholder couldn't book multiple pairs of award nights and receive every other night free. For stays longer than 2 nights, people developed workarounds like having a spouse book every other pair of nights, or booking the first two and last two nights before booking a fifth night connecting them to receive 5 nights for the price of 3.

Another workaround was to simply pay cash for a third night, which gave you the added flexibility to make your cash reservation for either the first or last night — whichever was cheaper. In one of my very first subscribers-only newsletters, I shared my experience doing so during a promotion that gave 38,000 bonus Gold Points after 3 paid stays. Even though only one of my 3 nights was paid, my theory was that since my first night was paid, when the two reservations were batched together all three nights were treated as paid nights and I earned the bonus Gold Points — enough points to cover the entire 2-night award reservation!

I don't know how other loyalty programs batch nights into stays — but I'd like to find out.

How do hotels determine if a stay is eligible or not?

Marriott has recently run a series of promotions where bonus points are earned starting on your second eligible stay with Marriott. Besides being another example of how poorly Marriott Rewards treats its members, it also raises the question of how Marriott determines if a stay is eligible or not. After all, even if you stay with Marriott frequently, you want to start earning those double points as soon as possible. It may be that Marriott requires you to stay on a paid rate. It may be that Marriott will treat stays as eligible if you simply charge a movie or a beer to your room on an award stay.

I don't know how Marriott determines if stays are eligible — but I'd like to find out.

Peak under the hood whenever possible

I hope you're already logging into your hotel loyalty accounts after your stays are completed in order to make sure you received your earned points. Instead of just making sure stays appear, you should also do your best to understand why you earned the exact number of points you did. One of the reasons I developed my points density charts is precisely how difficult the chains make it to determine how they award points.

For example, Hilton awards 10 "base points" per dollar spent. If you select the "Points & Points" earning style, you earn a 50% bonus on those base points. If you're a Diamond elite, you earn another 50% bonus, but only on those base points, not the Points & Points bonus points. In other words, Diamond elites earn 20 HHonors points per dollar spent at Hilton properties — plus 1,000 extra bonus points at many Hilton brands!

Conclusion

In many ways these are the same kinds of questions we ask about airline loyalty programs (if I'm rebooked on an award ticket into a paid fare class, will I earn miles? Can I apply upgrades?) and manufactured spend (are these debit cards PIN-able?).

On the other hand, hotel loyalty programs are different in that consolidation has been much more gradual than what we've seen in the airline industry and that hotels are, by and large, not owned by the chains that administer their loyalty programs. Meanwhile, hotels constitute a large part of my travel budget; as I sometimes point out, I only need one or two plane tickets, but I might need 5 or 10 nights in a hotel.

That increases my incentive to be more aggressive with hotel loyalty programs than I am with airlines — I often simply pay whatever the airlines are asking for, but almost never stay at hotels on paid rates.

Do this now: register for IHG fall promotion

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Between September 1 and December 31, 2015, IHG is awarding a range of points for completing a targeted set of offers. Here are the offers I was targeted for:

Without applying for the IHG Rewards Club Select Credit Card, I could complete the rest of my offers with two, 3-night stays at Holiday Inn hotels (including at least one weekend) and earn a total of 48,000 bonus IHG Rewards points.

If you like the IHG Rewards Club program and have two 3-night stays planned during the promotional period, this promotion might make it worth directing those stays towards Holiday Inn properties.

Personally, I consider IHG Rewards Club to be tied with Marriott in the category of "worst hotel loyalty program," so I won't be participating.

Either way, you should still register now, before you forget.

Is cash really king for domestic economy travel?

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I love cash back. I earn a lot of cash back. Cash back can be used for all sorts of purposes that other currencies are ill-suited for. Things like food and shelter, paying taxes, and saving for retirement. But precisely because my personal preference is to earn as much cash as possible, I like to check in from time to time on exactly how cash back stacks up against other rewards currencies.

For example, that was the inspiration for my imputed redemption value tables, which I use whenever I have to decide whether to book hotel stays with cash or with points.

What's the best credit card?

It doesn't take long after you first get interested in travel hacking for someone to ask, "what's the best credit card?" As your game evolves, the answer naturally changes. If you just got started reading affiliate bloggers, you might confidently state the Chase Sapphire Preferred is the first card anyone should apply for. If you just started manufacturing spend, you might explain the (new) "old" Blue Cash is an easy money maker. And if you just spent an evening chasing phantom award space, you might just answer that it's best to run as fast as possible away from travel hacking.

I've been at this for a few years now, and my approach to advising curious acquaintances is to make sure they have a 2% cash back credit card. It doesn't really matter which one. Neither the Fidelity Investment Rewards American Express or Citi Double Cash has an annual fee. Fidelity's card gives you access to Amex Sync offers over Twitter, and the Citi card has slightly wider acceptance. Get either, or get both (I have both, although so far I've only used my Double Cash for the 15-month negative-interest-rate loan).

This isn't because a 2% cash back card is the best way to earn travel. It's because as long as 2% cash back cards exist, that's the standard you should judge all other travel rewards cards against. But if you don't have a 2% cash back card, the exercise is academic!

Is cash back the best way to earn economy travel?

The cliche that cash back is the best way to earn economy travel has two logical bases:

  • co-branded credit cards earn 1 mile per dollar spent;
  • and it's hard to get more than 2 cents per mile on economy redemptions.

The argument is then strengthened with reference to the fact that paying with cash gives you access to the airlines and flights of your choosing and that revenue fares are mileage-earning. It follows that while airline miles may give deep discounts on (capacity-controlled) premium-cabin redemptions, you're better off earning cash back if you're content to fly economy (as I, in fact, am).

It's an elegant argument. But is it true?

Do co-branded credit cards earn 1 mile per dollar?

It's true that most airline co-branded credit cards earn 1 mile per dollar.

But the American Express Starwood Preferred Guest card earns 1 Starpoint per dollar, which, when transferred in 20,000 increments, is worth 1.25 American AAdvantage or Alaska Mileage Plan mile.

Meanwhile, the Chase United Club card earns 1.5 Mileage Plus miles per dollar spent everywhere.

Suddenly we don't need to get 2 cents per mile, but just 1.6 (American and Alaska) or 1.3 (United) cents per dollar in order to break even compared to a 2% cash back card — although both the Starwood Preferred Guest and United Club cards have annual fees to beware of.

Is it hard to get 2 cents per mile on economy redemptions?

Because of capacity controls, the hoary wisdom states, award space is typically available only on dates when airlines expect to have unsold inventory, which are also the dates when airlines are supposed to price their seats most competitively.

But in addition to the "low"-level award inventory travel hackers love so dearly, American, United, and Alaska Airlines also offer more expensive awards that escape most capacity controls. While they're much-maligned by those who will pay any price to avoid using their miles on anything but low-level awards, this is in fact precisely the supposed benefit of booking with cash: access to any flight on any day!

Paying with cash, therefore, has to be compared not just to capacity-controlled low-level seats, but also to more expensive last-seat-availability awards. So, how do they compare?

Where do your domestic economy flights fall?

One could imagine four constellations of datapoints when looking at airfares and award availability:

  • Expensive fares with low-level availability. @turnbullben on Twitter suggested American's flight from Richmond to New York City as an example of an expensive fare, and he's right: American wants $405 for a one-way flight on November 2, 2015. But they'll take 12,500 AAdvantage miles, instead! These are the redemptions that are the airlines' worst enemy: when someone who would otherwise spend a lot of cash spends just a handful of miles.
  • Cheap fares without low-level availability. These are the opposite of the above: fares where you'd be crazy to redeem miles, getting well less than 1 cent per mile.
  • Cheap fares with low-level availability. If 12,500-mile seats are available, you need to be saving at least $200 to justify transferring Starpoints in for a low-level redemption. But there are plenty of airfares cheaper than that, and those are the ones cash was made for.
  • Expensive fares without low-level availability. These are the edge cases: do you spend more money than you'd like to spend or redeem more miles than you'd like to redeem? In January, American wants $1,122 for their nonstop flights between Chicago's O'Hare airport and San Jose, California. But they'll take 20,000 AAdvantage miles, instead. That's more AAdvantage miles than you'd prefer to spend on a domestic economy ticket, but it's also a 5.61-cent-per-mile return.

Conclusion

I don't get paid enough to give advice, so don't take this post as an invitation to apply for a $450-annual-fee United Club card. But the cliche that domestic economy flights should be paid for with cash, rather than miles, is treated as such gospel that I wanted to take a step back and interrogate it a little further today.

If your local airport is served by multiple competing airlines, you'll likely find fares too cheap to bother redeeming miles for. If you're a hub captive, you may find yourself buying fares so expensive that even high-level awards give you a better return on your credit card spend.

Booking Iberia award tickets for fun and profit

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Before I get started today, it would be irresponsible of me not to state that your Avios are fine. You see, the last time I wrote about Iberia, the travel hacking blogosphere exploded with speculation about an upcoming British Airways Avios devaluation. While British Airways Avios have since been devalued, they weren't devalued in the specific, weird way that Iberia was pricing out oneworld partner awards.

So promise you won't freak out.

Iberia charges lower fuel surcharges on their own flights than British Airways does

Once you've initialized your Iberia account, you can freely transfer Avios between a British Airways, Avios.com, and Iberia Plus Avios account.

The obvious reason to do so is that on identical Iberia-operated flights, you'll be charged lower fuel surcharges using Avios in an Iberia Plus account than Avios in a British Airways account.

For example, here's an Iberia Plus Avios redemption between Chicago and Madrid in early January, pricing out at 20,000 Iberia Plus Avios and €74.20 ($85.54):

And here's the exact same itinerary pricing out at 20,000 British Airways Avios and $275:

Did you see my sleight of hand?

I'll give you a hint: one of the fuel surcharges I cited had to be converted to US dollars. One of them was converted for me.

British Airways has a funny approach to currency conversion

Here's a British Airways-operated flight between Chicago and Budapest in June, 2015. With Great Britain's passenger charges, as expected there are some substantial taxes and fees on such a ticket. It prices out at 19,500 Avios and $321:

Here's the same ticket priced out on Iberia's website, costing 19,500 Avios and €264.34 ($304.70):

I understand, you're not impressed with my saving you $16.30 in surcharges. Now watch this.

British Airways and Iberia both let you buy Avios at deep discounts

Instead of paying 19,500 Avios and $321, British Airways will let you book the same itinerary for just 6,700 Avios and $481, letting you buy 12,800 Avios for $160, or 1.25 cents each:

Meanwhile, Iberia will let you buy 9,750 Avios for €90 ($103), or 1.06 cents each:

At this point you might start to admit that this currency conversion business is at least worth being aware of. Now watch this.

British Airways and Iberia both let you buy lots of Avios for premium-cabin awards

I've been showing you economy cabin redemptions so far. But British Airways also operates premium cabins!

Here are the same Chicago-Budapest flights in business class, priced out at 62,750 British Airways Avios and $491, allowing you to buy 30,950 Avios for $805, or 2.6 cents each:

And here's the same flight priced out for 62,750 Iberia Plus Avios and €412.26 ($475.82), allowing you to buy 30,100 Iberia Plus Avios for €510 ($588.63), or 1.96 cents each:

Conclusion

I would never suggest earning, let alone buying, rewards currencies speculatively: if your account balances are high enough, you'll be better off simply transferring your Membership Rewards or Ultimate Rewards points to Avios and booking traditional award tickets.

On the other hand, if you're diligently keeping your flexible balances as low as possible, and especially if you're planning trips involving high-value Hyatt redemptions (or if you have a Southwest companion pass), you may well find that buying up the Avios you need to complete a redemption makes sense compared to transferring the points in from Chase Ultimate Rewards.

If you happen to find yourself in that situation, do yourself a favor and see if an Iberia Avios redemption will save you a couple hundred dollars.

Loyalty is an expensive, annoying trap

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I shared on Monday that over the weekend I was the proud recipient of $1,300 in Delta voluntary denied boarding compensation, and reflected on some of the possible consequences for the miles and points I'd budgeted for my upcoming travel.

Since I booked some speculative hotel rooms in Eastern Europe for next summer before the latest Club Carlson devaluation, but haven't booked our flights yet, I thought that would be a good place to see how far $1,300 in Delta transportation would get me.

The answer, it turns out, is pretty far! I was able to find this great itinerary flying into Prague and out of Frankfurt, for example, for $1,294, marketed and operated by Delta:

Since there are two of us going, I decided I'd use my Delta transportation voucher to fully pay for my ticket (since the voucher was issued in my name), then redeem FlexPoints or even SkyMiles for the other (if low-level award space opens up — fat chance!).

Silver Medallion status has (a few) privileges

Then I remembered: as a Silver Medallion, I get to choose Comfort+ seats within 24 hours of departure on Delta-operated flights for myself and companions flying on the same itinerary. If I book my partner and I on separate itineraries, I won't be able to select a Comfort+ seat for her without paying $129 for the outbound leg and $99 for the return.

Alternatively, I can book the two tickets on Delta's website, using the transportation voucher to cover the first $1,300 and paying cash for the balance. That would be way too expensive, even if I used my Arrival+ MasterCard to pay the the balance.

On domestic flights, you may or may not care about Comfort+ seating, but on two long-haul international flights, I don't think it's unreasonable to want some additional legroom in economy.

Loyalty makes easy decisions harder

I'll grant that this sounds like a corner case – a curiosity – and not a real problem. But in fact, I find myself in similar situations with some regularity.

Later this year we're flying to Portland to celebrate my partner's birthday. The flights I wanted cost $330, and were pricing out at 20,000 SkyMiles roundtrip. This is basically a wash: redeeming 20,000 FlexPoints would give me the equivalent of 3.33% cash back on $10,000 in spend, while redeeming SkyMiles would get me a 2.3% return on $14,285 in spend (since I earn 1.4 SkyMiles per dollar spent on my American Express Delta Platinum card).

Both returns exceed the 2.22% I'd earn with my Barclaycard Arrival+ MasterCard, so there's no wrong choice. On the one hand, my preference is to redeem SkyMiles as aggressively as possible, because of their rapidly dropping value. On the other hand, I'd like to keep my Alaska Airlines MVP status next year, and to do so I'll need all the paid Delta flights I can get.

So I split the difference: I redeemed SkyMiles for my partner's ticket, and FlexPoints for mine, for an average return of 2.72% on $24,285 in manufactured spend.

Here again, only I'll have access to Comfort+ seating, but additionally I'll have a free checked bag thanks to my Medallion status, while my partner will have to pile her firearms, knives, and dry ice into my bag in order to avoid Delta's checked bag fees.

Conclusion

Checked bag fees and charges for preferred seating are huge revenue sources for the airlines, and can be huge expenses for passengers willing to pay them. The free checked bags and preferred seats offered to elites are therefore real, tangible benefits of elite status.

But elite status also makes it easier to be guided by motivated reasoning, allowing you to justify decisions you wouldn't otherwise consider.

In my first example, Delta is presenting me with a false choice: buy a second cash ticket in order to secure my partner Comfort+ seating, or redeem Flexpoints for the second ticket and pay to upgrade my partner. It's a false choice because absent elite status we would both be fine sitting in Main Cabin seats!

In my second example, I'm redeeming valuable Flexpoints for my ticket instead of taking the opportunity to empty my SkyMiles account even further, all in order to earn a few thousand more Alaska Airlines Mileage Plan elite-qualifying miles.

I still don't understand the appeal of revenue-based rewards programs

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Invariably when I write about Ultimate Rewards transfer partners, commenters chime in that I've left out Southwest. And this is invariably true: Southwest doesn't serve my local airport, I don't fly Southwest, and I don't like Southwest, so I don't write about Southwest.

But it's worse than that: I don't care about any revenue-based rewards programs.

Hotel revenue-based rewards programs are great — if you're a business traveler

If you're a business traveler who is reimbursed for their paid hotel stays, then it's essential to understand the concept of point "density:" how much you need to spend at each chain in order to earn enough points for award redemptions at that chain's properties.

If you pay for your own stays, on the other hand, then it's vanishingly unlikely that you're going to get a big enough rebate from a hotel's loyalty program to justify paying retail for hotel rooms booked through that chain, as is typically required in order to earn hotel points: after all, you can get a 17% rebate by simply booking paid stays through Hotels.com, after clicking through a cash back portal like TopCashBack.

Of course there are corner cases, like someone who otherwise pays for their stays through manufactured spend, but who is gunning for Hyatt Diamond elite status in anticipation of an upcoming trip where that status is going to pay for itself with suite upgrades, breakfast, or lounge access. But an extraordinary amount of digital ink is dedicated to those corner cases, which are simply not encountered by the typical traveler in any given year.

Airfare is too cheap to think about revenue-base airline rewards

Southwest has a "pure" revenue-based rewards program: you earn points based on the amount you spend on airfare, and then you redeem points based on the paid price of a ticket, after the appropriate conversion rate is applied.

So the ideal use case for Southwest points looks something like this: earn Ultimate Rewards points at 0.5 cents (gas stations) or 0.67 cents each (office supply stores), transfer them to Southwest, where you have a Companion Pass, and redeem them for between 2.5 cents and 3.4 cents each when booking award tickets for yourself and your designated companion, giving you a discount of 73% to 85% over retail.

And if you live in a city served by Southwest, and which serves many destinations with nonstop flights, that really might work out to a pretty good value. Baltimore and Dallas, I'm looking at you.

In exchange, of course, you have to fly Southwest. On the one hand, that means free checked bags. On the other hand, it means furiously checking in exactly 24 hours before departure, lining up for the alphabetical cattle call, and then crossing your fingers that you and your companion will actually get to sit together while the flight attendant raps his safety briefing at you.

Meanwhile, if you have access to grocery store or gas station manufactured spend, you can use a US Bank Flexperks Travel Rewards card to get up to 75% off paid airfare on a distance-based carrier like American, Alaska, or Delta (if credited to Alaska). And in addition to your air travel, you also earn miles that can be redeemed for additional airline award tickets.

That's the calculation that prevents me from having any interest in flying on Southwest, or crediting my paid flights to revenue-based carriers.

Crediting paid flights to revenue-based airlines is the least efficient method of earning miles

A general member crediting a paid United flight to United will earn 5 Mileage Plus miles per dollar spent on airfare. Pay $400 for a domestic roundtrip ticket, with $5.60 in taxes and fees, and you'll earn 2,000 Mileage Plus miles.

Pay the same $406 for gas station manufactured spend, and you can buy 82 OneVanilla prepaid debit cards, earning 82,811 Ultimate Rewards points. That's 3 domestic economy roundtrips at the "saver" level or 1.5 roundtrips at the "standard" level. It's $1035 in paid, mileage-earning airfare — on any airline, not just United.

The difference in scale here is geometric. Go ahead and bump your United earning up to 7, 8, 9 or 11 Mileage Plus miles per dollar spent, and you'll run into the exact same situation: the more you spend out-of-pocket on paid airfare, the more miles you're leaving on the table.

The same is true of Delta: as long as SkyMiles are a transfer partner of American Express Membership Rewards, you'll never get better value buying paid Delta-operated flights and crediting them to Delta than you will spending the same money manufacturing spend in bonus categories on your American Express cards.

Go ahead and credit to Delta and United — just don't do it for the miles

Of course I'm begging the question here: once you've manufactured the spend you need to redeem your miles for paid domestic travel, you still have to credit the flights somewhere.

Personally, I privilege flying American, Delta, and Alaska in order to credit flights from all three to Alaska'a Mileage Plan, but you may well find that United best serves your needs, and decide to credit your paid United flights to Mileage Plus.

Likewise, you might find that Delta Medallion elite benefits make it worth crediting your paid Delta flights there, whether for complimentary upgrades, preferred seating, or refundable and changeable award tickets.

But if you do, don't use the rebate value of your redeemable miles as justification. It's not there.

Exploring the Virgin Australia award chart

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Yesterday MileValue wrote about the partnership between Virgin Australia and Singapore Airlines, which allows points to be transferred between the two programs at a 1.35:1 ratio (points can apparently be transferred either direction at the same ratio, although I haven’t tried it yet).

Virgin Australia doesn’t belong to any of the big three alliances but, like Hawaiian Airlines and Alaska Airlines, has a lot of partners around the world. It also has a distance-based award chart. Since Singapore Airlines is a transfer partner of all three major flexible rewards currencies, that got me wondering: are there awards that are booked more cheaply using Virgin Australia’s distance-based rewards chart than other transfer partners?

The transfer ratio isn’t great

Since 1.35 Singapore Airlines KrisFlyer miles become 1 Virgin Australia Velocity mile, you lose about 26% of your points right off the top. That means you’d need to spend 26% fewer Velocity miles than other rewards currencies before you'd start seeing a profit with this shell game.

airberlin is a bust

My first thought when seeing MileValue’s post was airberlin: it’s already a great airline to use distance-based Avios on because of the 3,749-mile distance between New York City and Dusseldorf, costing 20,000 Avios in economy with no fuel surcharges.

So I meticulously lined up the distance bands of Virgin Australia’s and British Airways award charts, adjusting for the transfer ratio between KrisFlyer and Velocity and looked for sweet spots.

Since I already made the chart, I’ll share it, but there’s nothing to see here.

For any given distance, an airberlin flight booked with British Airways Avios will be cheaper than the same flight booked with Velocity miles transferred from KrisFlyer.

Between Australia and the United States

Virgin Australia operates flights between Los Angeles and both Sydney and Brisbane, which cover 7,488 and 7,161 miles, respectively. Both routes will cost 47,000 Velocity miles in economy, 94,000 in business, or 141,000 in First. Converting from Singapore Airlines, those values come to 63,450, 126,900, or 190,350 flexible points.

Since you could book the same Virgin Australia flights for 50,000 Delta SkyMiles in economy or 80,000 SkyMiles in business, transferring points through Singapore Airlines is unlikely to be your cheapest route to Australia, unless you have no Membership Rewards points or SkyMiles banked.

Virgin America

Next I turned to Virgin Australia’s more advantageous award chart for flights on "Virgin Australia, Virgin Atlantic, Virgin America, Virgin Samoa, Etihad, Delta, and trans-Tasman Air New Zealand flights." Here I got a little bit of traction:

For extremely short flights along the West Coast of the United States, and between Austin and Dallas's Love Field, paying 6,900 Velocity miles (9,315 flexible points) may well be the cheapest option, depending of course on award availability and paid ticket prices.

Additionally, since award flights to Hawaii on domestic carriers will typically cost more miles than flights within the mainland, if you can find Virgin America award availability between San Francisco and Honolulu or Maui, you can come out a little bit ahead. Even if it’s not a windfall, it’s at least worth keeping in mind while searching for award seats, as an additional option in the face of dwindling award availability.

Transfer Starpoints directly to Virgin Australia

So far I’ve been talking about transferring Ultimate Rewards, Membership Rewards, or Citi ThankYou points to Singapore Airlines KrisFlyer in order to transfer them to Virgin Australia.

But Virgin Australia is also a transfer partner of Starwood Preferred Guest, at a 1:1 ratio, with a 25% bonus when you transfer in increments of 20,000 Starpoints.

If you’re Starpoint-rich, you don’t need to take the initial 26% hit by transferring your points to KrisFlyer; you can transfer them directly to Virgin Australia Velocity.

Conclusion

I've never given much thought to Virgin Australia, either as a transfer partner of Starwood Preferred Guest or of Singapore Airlines, so these are just my very preliminary thoughts on using their miles for fun and profit.

What else should I and my readers know?

The 20-cents-per-mile breakeven point for Delta and United mileage earning is still wrong

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Regular readers know the sacred cows that get repeated daily by affiliate bloggers, which drive me bonkers whenever I accidentally glance at one:

But there's one seemingly minor one which makes my skin crawl in a way the outright lies don't: the claim that Delta and United travelers need to pay 20 cents per mile to break even under the new, revenue-based SkyMiles and Mileage Plus programs. It's not just incorrect, it's so blatantly innumerate it makes my head spin. Here's a thought leader in travel last week:

"Both United and Delta require spending at least 12.5 cents per mile flown to earn elite status as part of their revenue-based elite rules. But they both require an average of 20 cents per mile flown just to break even with the miles that had been earned under the old distance-based system."

That's still wrong, as I helpfully pointed out in September of last year. Since it apparently still hasn't sunk in, let's go over it again.

Elite mileage earning changed out of proportion to non-elite mileage earning

Since January 1, 2015, Delta and United have had the same mileage earning structure for passengers crediting flights to their frequent flyer programs:

  • General members: 5 miles per dollar
  • 25,000-mile elites: 7 miles per dollar (40% bonus)
  • 50,000-mile elites: 8 miles per dollar (60% bonus)
  • 75,000-mile elites: 9 miles per dollar (80% bonus)
  • 100,000-mile (United) and 125,000-mile (Delta) elites: 11 miles per dollar (120% bonus)

Before January 1, 2015, redeemable miles were earned at the following rates:

  • General members: distance flown
  • 25,000-mile elites: 25% bonus
  • 50,000-mile elites: 50% bonus (United) and 100% bonus (Delta)
  • 75,000-mile elites: 75% bonus (United) and 100% bonus (Delta)
  • 100,000-mile (United) and 125,000-mile elites (Delta): 100% bonus (United) and 125% bonus (Delta)

The mistake innumerate bloggers make is looking only at the first bullet points: if general members now earn 5 miles per dollar, then to earn as many miles as under the distance-based regime they'd need to spend 20 cents per mile flown. If they spend more than that, they'll earn more miles under the new regime; if they spend less, fewer.

Your actual breakeven point depends on your elite status

Since elite status with both airlines is still based on distance flown with them, the typical traveler's elite status will depend on their actual travel needs. With that in mind, here are the breakeven points for average cost per mile flown, depending on your elite status:

  • General members: 20 cents per mile flown
  • 25,000-mile elites: 17.9 cents per mile flown
  • 50,000-mile elites: 18.8 cents per mile flown (United) and 25 cents per mile flown (Delta)
  • 75,000-mile elites: 19.4 cents per mile flown (United) and 22.2 cents per mile flown (Delta)
  • 100,000-mile and 125,000 mile elites: 18.2 cents per mile flown (United) and 20.5 cents per mile flown

To calculate these values on your own, take a sample trip of exactly 1000 miles. A Diamond Medallion would have previously earned 2,250 SkyMiles. To earn 2,250 SkyMiles at 11 SkyMiles per dollar, the same Diamond Medallion would now have to spend $204.55, or 20.5 cents per mile.

Conclusion

For mid-tier Delta elites, the situation is even worse than the 20-cent-per-mile conventional wisdom would have it, since their flights need to be, on average, 11-25% more expensive than that to earn the same number of miles as they did last year. Only Delta Diamond Medallions approach the same bonused earning rates under the new regime as they did under the old, distance-based system.

United elites, meanwhile, have it relatively easy since their redeemable-mile earning was never as heavily bonused as that of Delta Medallions.

Retiring to hotels: good idea, or great idea?

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After a prominent miles-and-points blogger cast off the chains of the rental housing market I wrote a light-hearted piece about manufacturing enough spend to, with the help of the Club Carlson last-night-free benefit, spend 30 days in one of their Category 1 properties.

Since that benefit can no longer be used on new reservations, I thought I'd revisit the topic, but cast a wider net this time: how many points would be needed to live in each chain's cheapest properties year-round? In other words, should you retire to hotels?

Starwood Preferred Guest

As a rule I don't find Starwood Preferred Guest's co-branded American Express card to be a great way to manufacture points for hotel stays (it's great for manufacturing Alaska Mileage Plan and American AAdvantage miles). The exception is Category 1 and 2 hotels, where weekday nights cost 3,000 and 4,000 Starpoints and weekend nights cost 2,000 and 3,000 Starpoints, respectively.

That puts the weekly cost of a Category 1 stay at 19,000 Starpoints. Manufacturing those Starpoints has an opportunity cost of $380 — that's how much you'd earn using a 2% cash back card, instead. So what can we get for a little over $1,520 in monthly rent?

Well, there are a lot of Category 1 properties in China and India. Since we're retiring, beaches should be considered, like the Four Points by Sheraton Puntacana Village in the Dominican Republic, where $1,520 is little over a 50% discount for the dates I checked in September. The Sheraton Ambassador Hotel in Monterrey is "within walking distance of the city center." But the winner for me is the Sheraton Catania Hotel & Conference Center in Sicily, which actually looks extremely comfortable. It's a bit of a hike to the city center, but it's important to stay active in retirement.

Retirement savings: 912,000 Starpoints annually ($18,240 in imputed redemption value).

Hilton HHonors

Unlike Starwood Preferred Guest, Hilton HHonors their elites the fifth night free on all award stays — including Category 1 stays. That makes five-night stays at Category 1 properties cost just 20,000 HHonors points, or $3,333 in manufactured spend at gas stations or grocery stores.

With 5-night Category 1 redemptions having an imputed redemption value of $66, our monthly rent will be 120,000 HHonors points or $400 in foregone cash back. But what does that get us?

Hilton's Category 1 properties actually include a few Hiltons, like the Hilton Alexandria King's Ranch and Hilton Hurghada Resort, so if you're really committed to Peter Thomas Roth bath products those are options. In Poland you have your choice of the Hampton by Hilton Krakow and Hilton Garden Inn Rzeszow, while over the border in Russia you can stay at the Hilton Garden Inn Ufa Riverside or Hampton by Hilton Samara. Personally, I'm leaning towards the Hampton by Hilton Panama, which seems to have a pretty good location in downtown Panama City. $400 per month is a roughly 85% discount off retail for the dates I checked, and in fact on the dates I checked HHonors redemptions gave an astonishing 2.17 cents per HHonors point.

Retirement savings: 1,440,000 HHonors points annually ($4,800 in imputed redemption value).

Marriott Rewards

Marriott offers the fifth night free on all redemptions, even for non-elites, so five-night Category 1 stays cost 30,000 Marriott Rewards points.

Since Marriott Rewards points cost one cent each when purchased with flexible Ultimate Rewards points, but 2 cents each in foregone cash back when manufactured using a Marriott Rewards co-branded credit card, we're realistically looking at 180,000 Ultimate Rewards points per month, or $1,800 in monthly rent. Are there any properties that would make that redemption worthwhile?

The Courtyard Kazan Kremlin has a nice location right on Karl Marx Street, but $1,800 will rent you a lot of house in Kazan, and I suspect that's true of most of Marriott's Category 1 properties.

Retirement savings: 2,160,000 Marriott Rewards points annually ($21,600 in Ultimate Rewards points).

Hyatt Gold Passport

While Hyatt redemptions start at 5,000 Hyatt Gold Passport points, they don't offer a fifth night free, so it'll cost us 150,000 Ultimate Rewards points per month to live in a Category 1 property — a $1,500 value.

The Hyatt Regency Kuantan Resort in Malaysia looks superb, as does the Hyatt Regency Kathmandu, and neither is so isolated that you'd be stuck buying food in the hotel, plus Hyatt Diamond elites would receive free breakfast at either property. The Hyatt Regency Bali is currently being renovated, but when it reopens it should be beautiful — if it's still a Category 1 property!

Retirement savings: 1,800,000 Hyatt Gold Passport points annually ($18,000 in Ultimate Rewards points).

IHG Rewards

Here the situation is even bleaker, since Category 1 properties cost 10,000 IHG Rewards points per night, and there's no fifth night free benefit. Instead you can chase the 5,000-point PointsBreaks list around the world, in which case the math is the same as above, since IHG Rewards is also a transfer partner of Chase Ultimate Rewards.

The current PointsBreaks list includes gems like the Holiday Inn Andorra and Holiday Inn Trnava, in Slovakia.

Retirement savings: 3,600,000/1,800,000 IHG Rewards points annually ($36,000/$18,000 in Ultimate Rewards points).

Club Carlson

Category 1 Club Carlson nights cost 9,000 Gold Points, or $1,800 in manufactured spend per night. At a $36 nightly imputed redemption value, our monthly rent will be a little over $1,000. Not as bad as Marriott, Hyatt, or IHG, but also not great.

The Park Inn by Radisson Budapest (where I have a reservation next June) has a great location, and I've enjoyed all the Park Inns I've stayed at so far. There are two Radisson Blu properties, the Radisson Blu Resort, El Quseir in Egypt and Radisson Blu Hotel, Mersin in Turkey. Both are great deals at $36 per night. I like the Country Inn & Suites By Carlson, San Jose, Costa Rica, since it includes breakfast, but it's not terribly close to downtown San Jose.

Retirement savings: 3,240,000 Gold Points annually ($12,960 in imputed redemption value).

Choice Privileges

Choice Privileges hotels start at 6,000 points, which can theoretically be earned for as little as 2,000 Ultimate Rewards points if you're able to transfer Amtrak Guest Rewards points to Choice Privileges. At $20 per night we can figure $600 in monthly rent, the second-lowest value so far, after Hilton HHonors. To get that value month after month, however, you'd need to first rail run your Amtrak elite status up to Select Executive status, which allows you to transfer an unlimited number of Amtrak Guest Rewards points to their hotel partners.

Choice Privileges doesn't share a consolidated list of their properties by point cost, so it takes a little bit of work on AwardMapper to find 6000-point properties.

In Sweden, the Quality Inn Hotel Prince Philip offers a free buffet breakfast, and $600 is a steal in famously-expensive Scandinavia. The Clarion Suites Roatan at Pineapple Villas seems like a lovely resort in Honduras, although close-in availability was spotty for the dates I checked. Personally, I'd probably splurge the extra $200 monthly and move into the Clarion Congress Hotel Prague, an 8,000-point property.

Retirement savings: 2,160,000 Choice Privileges points ($7,200 in Ultimate Rewards points, with Amtrak Select Executive status).

Conclusion

This was a fun exercise, but there are a few problems which make it impractical to permanently retire to hotels, as opposed to moving into one for a month or two. First, you face the problem of award availability: at chains that don't guarantee standard room availability, you might be stuck paying cash for a hotel room if award availability suddenly dries up. Second, over the longer term you face the risk of devaluations: properties themselves can move up or down in award categories and new categories can be introduced, but rewards programs also sometimes go through wholesale devaluations, for example shifting to a revenue-based redemption model that would leave you stuck with much less valuable points.

Still, if I ever need to spend a month in Krakow, I know where I'll be spending it!

How does the Club Carlson annual free night benefit work?

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Introduction

On June 1, the US Bank Club Carlson co-branded credit cards underwent a serious devaluation: the last-night-free benefit was eliminated, and replaced with a single, domestic award night each year cardholders spend $10,000 on the credit cards.

I wrote in April that I would keep the card, spending exactly $10,000 on the card in order to earn 50,000 Gold Points from spend, 40,000 anniversary Gold Points, and an annual free night, all of which I'd redeem at the Radisson Blu Aqua Hotel Chicago for a long weekend.

Then Club Carlson devalued again, lifting many of their 50,000-point properties into the 70,000-point tier, including the Radisson Blu Aqua Hotel, Chicago and Radisson Blu Warwick Hotel, Philadelphia. That meant my 90,000 annual Gold Points would barely cover a second night at those properties, let alone a third.

Since I never actually received any new terms and conditions for the annual free night benefit, yesterday I decided to call US Bank and find out how the annual free night benefit actually works.

The annual free night benefit was implemented in an obvious, but disastrous, way

The annual free night eCertificate is awarded on your first, post-devaluation anniversary, if you spent $10,000 in the preceding 12 months. That means that if, like me, you paid your annual fee in April, you won't receive your first annual domestic free night certificate until April, 2016.

This is a terrible way to reward high-spending customers, since it detaches the reward (a free night) from the spend, which could have occurred as many as 12 months earlier.

I cancelled my Club Carlson Business Rewards card

Even after the dual devaluation, I fully expected to keep my US Bank Club Carlson credit card. It still earned 5 Gold Points per dollar spent, it still offered 40,000 anniversary Gold Points, and spending $10,000 on the card would get me an additional free domestic award night each year.

But I haven't spent a dime on the card since May, and once I found out that I won't see my annual free night certificate until next April, I lost what was left of my interest in the card.

Foregoing $200 in cash back on $10,000 in manufactured spend, plus paying a $60 annual fee, for 2 nights in Chicago or Philadelphia doesn't make any sense in a world where Hilton and Hyatt points are so easy to come by; I would have to start planning my Club Carlson redemptions years in advance, even while my Hilton and Ultimate Rewards accounts are being continually replenished.

I'm getting some kind of annual fee refund

It's been over 3 months since I paid my annual fee, so I don't expect a refund of the full $60 annual fee, but I asked my phone agent and he said that I'd receive some kind of refund check as soon as the annual fee refund hits my account.

I couldn't product change to the much better Business Edge Cash Rewards card

Likewise in April, I wrote that a phone representative had told me I could product change my Club Carlson card to a Business Edge Cash Rewards card. Once I decided to cancel my Club Carlson card, I asked whether that was possible, and my agent yesterday told me it was not — I'd have to apply for a new card. Needless to say, I passed.

Conclusion

The best case scenario for the dual devaluation was folks who had account anniversaries after June 1 and who could fit $10,000 in manufactured spend in before that anniversary. They got to maximize the last-night-free benefit, run up spend one last time, then get another 40,000 Gold Points and a free domestic night certificate.

As for me, I don't trust Club Carlson enough to keep the card, let alone put any spend on it, knowing that anything could happen between now and April, 2016.